Geoff Schwartz
FOX sports betting analyst
Now that all the college football spring games are over, it’s time for bettors to start looking at next season’s win totals.
Typically, I study spring slate performances, note which teams lost studs in the NFL, and consider upcoming schedules to determine if I want to throw money at teams.
The jury is still out on which teams I think deserve the Under bets, but I have three teams that I hope to revise the projected win totals.
Let’s dive into my picks.
Georgia: Over 11.5 wins
Yes, I’m betting on Georgia finishing the regular season 12-0 for the third straight season. When you combine Georgia’s talent, coaching and pedigree with the team’s schedule, you’ll see that this bet is the only way to bet on their win total.
The ‘Dawgs are once again the most talented team in the country, even with all the players they lost in the NFL Draft. On offense, they return one of the best lines and a core of talented skill players built around the best tight end in the country, Brock Bowers.
Georgia continues to load up on defense, with a two-deep roster of only top-tier players. I’m not worried about UGA’s performance being anywhere near the top of the nation again this season.
If you want a good laugh, check out UGA’s schedule for next season and find me the game where the team will be favored by less than 10 points. You can not. Maybe Florida in the annual rivalry game with the Gators, but otherwise, no.
With Georgia’s talent and schedule, they won’t lose a game this regular season.
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USC: Over 9.5 wins
Against my better judgement, I’m taking USC to win 10 games this season.
The Trojans return Heisman winner Caleb Williams as their NFL-heavy quarterback–caliber skill position talent. The offense will always be good under head coach Lincoln Riley. They’ve also added some talent on defense, and when I look at the schedule, I don’t see this team losing more than two games.
Look for SC to start the season 6-0. Arizona State is a potential early threat, but the Sun Devils have a new coach and lack the talent to stop the Trojans’ offense.
But, after the first six games, USC has one of the toughest schedules in the country. The Trojans are at Notre Dame, home against Utah and then away at Cal. They will then host Washington, play Oregon and finally face UCLA at the Coliseum. USC will beat Cal and UCLA, but the other four games are mine. The Trojans should split those four and get their record to 10-2, hitting the Over for us.
One concern is how the USC defense wants to win, forcing turnovers. USC was +21 in turnover margin last season. However, turnover fluctuates from one year to the next. You can lead the country in turnover margin one year and the next year you’re back in the middle of the pack. Over the previous five seasons (2017-2021), the leader in turnover margin saw an average drop of 15.8 in turnover margin. However, USC will beat most teams with their offense, so none of that will matter.
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OTHER OVERWIN/INTEREST TOTALS BETTER SHOULD CONSIDER*
Colorado: O/U 3.5 wins
TCU: O/U 7.5 wins
Our Lady: O/U 8.5 wins
Texas: O/U 9.5 wins
LSU: O/U 9.5 wins
Clemson: O/U 9.5 wins
Oregon: O/U 9.5 wins
Penn State: O/U 9.5 wins
Ohio State: O/U 10.5 wins
Alabama: O/U 10.5 wins
*Odds from 5/18/2023
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Michigan: Over 10.5 wins
The Wolverines return to a playoff-caliber team once again with an above-average quarterback, running back and offensive line. This hard-hitting offense will wear down defenses, and while the games will be close early, the Wolverines will win big late because of these tired defenses.
Michigan’s offense is also perfect for road games, two of which are at Penn State and Michigan State, which will be tough, but winnable. The Wolverines have beaten Ohio State two years in a row and now get the Buckeyes in the Big House this season. Over 10.5 wins allows Michigan to lose a conference game and still hit.
The Wolverines’ defense has been in the top 14 in yards per play for two straight seasons, and while the team had an exodus of (NFL) pass rush talent, UM has recruited well.
Jim Harbaugh has shown he can develop talent all over the field, and I expect nothing less this season.
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his freshman year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.
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