2023 NASCAR GEICO 500 at Talladega odds, predictions, pick

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Ross Chastain looks to defend his GEICO 500 title as NASCAR heads to Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama for Sunday’s race. This weekend’s big race starts at 3 pm ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

While Chastain tries to defend her crown, Ryan Blaney will be on a mission to continue his own Talladega magic. Blaney won the GEICO 500 in 2020. He also finished second in the YellaWood 500 in October and won the 1000Bulbs.com 500 in 2019. Blaney is a pre-race favorite, currently sitting at +1000 on FOX Bet.

But if Brad Keselowski (+1400) has his say, he will be the driver who comes out on top. Keselowski has six Talladega wins on his resume, most recently in the 2021 GEICO 500. He followed that up with a second-place finish in the YellaWood 500 at Talladega on October 4, 2021.

Another driver to watch out for is defending NASCAR Cup Series champion and co-favorite Joey Logano (+1000 at FOX Bet). Can he reclaim his second-place finish in the Daytona 500 on February 19 by taking the checkered flag on Sunday?

Logano, who also won the Cup Series title in 2018, has three career wins at Talladega (including the 2018 GEICO) and seven other top-10 finishes at Talladega.

NASCAR Cup Series: NOCO 400 at Martinsville Speedway

NASCAR Cup Series: NOCO 400 at Martinsville Speedway

Kyle Larson captured the checkered flag at Martinsville Speedway in Virginia on Sunday.

[RELATED: Bob PockrassNASCAR Power Rankings]

Who will be the next driver to conquer the 2.66-mile trioval, NASCAR’s longest non-road course that also has the steepest bank in the turns (33 degrees)?

Here are the odds and an expert’s pick to win the race (FOX Bet Odds*)

Ryan Blaney +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Joey Logano +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Ross Chastain +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Chase Elliott +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Brad Keselowski +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
William Byron +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Denny Hamlin +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Christoper Bell +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 in total)
Kyle Larson +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Kyle Busch +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Bubba Wallace +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Austin Cindric +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Tyler Reddick +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Chris Buescher +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Daniel Suarez +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Austin Dillon +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Aric Almirola +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Alex Bowman +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Chase Briscoe +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Martin Truex Jr. +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Kevin Harvick +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Austin Hill +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Erik Jones +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)

[RELATED: Complete odds list]

Keselowski is tied with Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon on the all-time Talladega wins list (six), four behind Dale Earnhardt Sr.

In addition to his 2020 GEICO win, Blaney’s most recent victory came in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona on August 28, 2021.

What about Kyle Larson (+1500), the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion who has won two of the last three races, including last week’s NOCO 400?

Larson has won pretty much everywhere on the NASCAR circuit except Talladega. Larson has 21 NASCAR Cup Series wins, including the 2021 Coca-Cola 600 and was part of the quartet of drivers that won the 2015 Daytona 24 Hours.

Larson finished fourth last year with a career-best GEICO finish, ending a difficult stretch at Talladega that saw him finish between 24th and 40th in five of six Talladega races in 2018-21.

Don’t forget veteran Denny Hamlin (+1400), a three-time Daytona 500 winner (2016, 2019, 2020). Hamlin has won twice at Talladega, the YellaWood 500 in 2020 and Aaron’s 499 in 2014. Hamlin has finished in the top 11 in nine of his last 13 Talladega races.

Josh Sims, co-anchor of FOX’s NASCAR Race Hub, said he likes Logano to have a good run at GEICO. Logano is coming off a second-place finish in the NOCO 400 last week at Martinsville Speedway in Virginia.

“When it comes to superspeedways, Penske is always good and Logano is always very good,” Sims said. “I know they’ve been up and down a little bit, but in superspeedway racing, Joey Logano and Team Penske are usually one of the teams to beat.”

SELECTION: Joey Logano (+1000 on FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $110 total) to win 500 GEICO

Here are the winners of the last 10 GEICO 500:

2022: Ross Chastain
2021: Brad Keselowski
2020: Ryan Blaney
2019: Chase Elliott
2018: Joey Logano
2017: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2016: Brad Keselowski
2015: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2014: Denny Hamlin
2013: David Ragan

So who do you have burning rubber after Sunday’s GEICO 500? Head to FOX Bet for all your sports betting now!

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Joey Logano

Chase Briscoe

Austin Cindric

Brad Keselowski

Aric Almirola

Denny Hamlin

Ryan Blaney

Bubba Wallace

Kevin Harvick

Ricky Stenhouse Jr

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