Can Philadelphia make history as unique underdog?

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Has a team looked more dominant than the Philadelphia Eagles through 12 weeks of the NFL season? With wins over heavyweights like the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills and the Dallas Cowboys, the 10-1 Dirty Birds look like the team to beat this year.

But is that how the oddsmakers see it?

Philly has the best record in the league as well as the MVP favorite in Jalen Hurts, but it is currently a 3-point underdog at home against the San Francisco 49ers.

Philadelphia not being favored in this matchup despite having 10 wins and the best record in the NFL hast most people asking one question: Has this ever happened before?

FOX Sports Research decided to take a deep dive into the past. Let’s look at history, plus the biggest nuggets and trends from this matchup of two powerhouses.

Instances of 10-1 Team Being Underdog in Regular Season (Super Bowl Era, since 1966)

In the Super Bowl era, there have only been four instances of a 10-1 team being an underdog in the regular season. The most recent one came in 2019, with the 49ers closing as 5.5-point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens. However, none of the previous four instances involved teams playing at home. The Eagles will be the first ever 10-1 team to be a home underdog in the Super Bowl era.

2023: 49ers at Eagles (currently +3)
2019: 49ers (+5.5) at Ravens
2007: Packers (+7) at Cowboys
1995: Chiefs (+11.5) at Cowboys
1990: Giants (+3.5) at 49ers

All four of the previous 10-1 underdogs lost, and when looking at how they did against the spread (ATS), the results weren’t much better, going 1-3 ATS (25%).

The Eagles are looking to be the first 10-1 team to be an underdog and win in the regular season. Can Philadelphia make history on Sunday? 

One-Loss Underdogs to Win (Min. 11 Games Played) (Super Bowl Era, Since 1966)

When looking at teams that have more than 10 wins and just one loss, the numbers are still shockingly low. Teams that have been 10-1, 11-1, 12-1, 13-1 and 14-1 in the regular season but still were underdogs have gone a whopping 6-16 ATS (27.3%) and 3-19 straight up (SU) (13.6%) in the Super Bowl era. 

The last team to fit this bill and win was the 2011 Packers, winning as 6.5-point underdogs against the Detroit Lions in a Week 17 matchup.

2011: Packers (+6.5) vs Lions, Week 17
2004: Steelers (+9.5) at Bills, Week 17
1976: Raiders (+2) vs Bengals, Week 13

In that instance, Green Bay had already locked up the top seed in the NFC with a 14-1 record and sat Aaron Rodgers in the final regular season game. If you exclude games after Week 15, the only team to win as an underdog with one loss through 11 games was the 1976 Oakland Raiders, defeating the Cincinnati Bengals as two-point home underdogs in a Week 13 meeting.

The 10-1 Eagles face 49ers at home as underdogs

The 10-1 Eagles face 49ers at home as underdogs

49ers-Eagles Season Betting Trends and Stats

Philadelphia has played several close games this season, going 7-1 SU in one-score games. However, five of those games were against teams with records of .500 or worse. 

The 49ers’ three losses have come against the Cleveland Browns, the Minnesota Vikings and the Bengals. Still, San Francisco has the second-highest point differential in the league at +140, trailing only the Cowboys (+162).

Here’s a breakdown of how each team has performed from a betting perspective this season:

Eagles

  • Philadelphia is 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%), the best cover rate of any team this season
  • Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS (25%) and 0-5 SU as a home underdog under Nick Sirianni (regular season)
  • Philadelphia is 4-7 ATS (36.4%) and 3-8 SU (27.3%) as an underdog under Nick Sirianni (regular season)
  • Philadelphia is 2-2 ATS (50%) and 3-1 SU (75%) vs. NFC West opponents under Nick Sirianni (regular season and playoffs)
  • Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS (83.3%) and 6-0 SU this season against opponents that enter the game with a record above .500
  • Philadelphia has not been a home underdog since the 2021 season

49ers

  • San Francisco is 6-5 ATS (54.5%) this season, T-13th among all teams this season
  • San Francisco is 13-13-1 ATS (50%) and 18-9 SU (66.7%) as a road favorite under Kyle Shanahan (regular season)
  • San Francisco is 30-31-3 ATS (49.2%) and 41-23 SU (64.1%) as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan (regular season)
  • San Francisco is 9-8 ATS and SU (52.9%) vs. NFC East opponents under Kyle Shanahan (regular season and playoffs)
  • San Francisco is 3-0-1 ATS and 4-0 SU this season against opponents that enter the game with a record above .500
  • San Francisco is 0-37 when trailing by eight or more points since Shanahan took over as head coach and 1-31 when trailing by three-plus points entering the fourth quarter

Both teams head into the big game as one and two on the Super Bowl title oddsboard. Be sure to tune in and catch all the fireworks on FOX Sports and the FOX Sports App at 4:25 p.m. E.T.

San Francisco 49ers

SF

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI




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