CFP championship game odds: Three reasons to bet on Georgia vs. TCU


After the best semifinal round in College Football Playoff history, we have a great matchup in the title game between the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs and the Texas Christian Horned Frogs!

Georgia is favored by 12.5 points at FOX Bet, and for good reason.

Let’s look at my three reasons why I expect the Bulldogs to be back-to-back champions and, more importantly, cover the spread.

Can Georgia be back-to-back national champions?

Can Georgia be back-to-back national champions?

Joel Klatt talked about the Georgia Bulldogs in the National Championship against the TCU Horned Frogs.

3

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU

1

Georgia Bulldogs

UGA

1. The stars are out

Stars matter, and Georgia has a lot more of them. Football can often be complicated, or at least we make it feel that way. However, college football can be simple in this regard. The team with the best players usually ends up winning. I know, not rocket science. In this case, Georgia has the best players.

The Bulldogs are better on both the offensive and defensive lines. Georgia has better skill players and better talent on the back end of the defense. TCU has a more dynamic quarterback because Max Duggan can move the ball with his legs, but Bennett throws a better ball. Now, having better players doesn’t help with luck or even guarantee you’ll win a game without effort and making mistakes. But, if Georgia plays its best and TCU plays its best, Georgia has advantages all over the field.

TCU vs. Georgia – David vs. Goliath?

TCU vs. Georgia - David vs. Goliath?

FOX Sports’ RJ Young previews the National Championship game between TCU and Georgia

2. Back to normal?

A return to the mean. Georgia’s defense played its worst game of the season. Ohio State’s passing attack, including its pass protection, was excellent as CJ Stroud was able to move down the field, find open receivers and make splash plays. I would expect Georgia’s defense to revert to average this season, especially against TCU’s offense, which is much better at running than passing. Duggan’s ability to move in the pocket is a concern for the Bulldogs, but I think they can live with the Horned Frogs’ offense.

TCU will also come back down to earth because its win against Michigan is hard to duplicate. TCU scored a total of 51 points, with 14 of them coming on defensive scores. He was able to score twice on interception returns, which is unlikely to continue against Georgia. TCU allowed 45 points to Michigan, and there’s a fair argument that Michigan could/should have scored in the 60s, as it had two drives inside the 2-yard line with zero points. As noted above, Michigan had two of its offensive chances end in TCU points. That’s four games in which the Wolverines didn’t score in a game in which they had just one punt. Georgia doesn’t make the mistakes Michigan did. I think we see the average fate of horned frogs.

3. The Trenches

Georgia has the best combination of offensive and defensive play in the country. The Bulldogs’ offensive line was one of two finalists for the Joe Moore Award. Georgia entered the playoffs ranked 13th in rushing yards and first in rushing yards. TCU’s defense ranks 69th in rushing percentage and 118th in pressure rate. TCU’s rushing attack is 42nd, and they face a third-ranked Georgia rushing defense. Georgia’s defensive line ranks fifth in line yards allowed, sixth in power hit percentage and first in opportunity percentage. TCU’s offensive line ranks 53rd in pressure rate, and while Georgia needs to generate pressure through pressure, they have every advantage in the trenches.

Teams that have this advantage in the trenches rarely lose. Give me the Bulldogs to cover. Put the dots.

COLLECT: Georgia (-12.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 12.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his freshman year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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