FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
What a great ride this NFL season has been!
We went 2-1 in the conference championship games, bringing me to 37-32-2 (53.5%) for the season.
I’m betting on Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers-Kansas City Chiefs in a ton of different ways.
So, without further delay, here are my favorite props bets (widely available), along with which side I am wagering on to win it all.
Good luck, and enjoy the game!
Pick No. 1: San Francisco 49ers moneyline
I’ll simply play the moneyline and pay a little tax to guarantee that if the Niners win the game, I’ll cash my ticket.
Yes, I get games don’t land on one often, but with the addition of the two-point conversion, there’s a chance two points could come into play. So instead of laying -110 on the spread, I’ll just take Niners ML.
Most people have settled on “Patrick Mahomes as a ‘dog” as a popular narrative. Folks have also been all about the “Kansas City has been the better team in the playoffs” narrative.
I get it. The Niners could easily have been beaten by both the Packers or Lions. But I just have a hard time forgetting what we saw throughout the entire year when San Fran was power-rated as one of the top two teams all season long.
What if the smaller sample size of the Chiefs beating injury-riddled Miami and Buffalo, along with a win over a Baltimore team that did not resemble what it had been offensively all season, has been overvalued, and recency bias has taken over?
One would think San Francisco will put together its best game at some point. It’s actually a credit to the 49ers that they are here and probably haven’t played even a “B” game in the playoffs.
Kansas City’s defense has been great lately, but the number of Niners’ offensive players who can put pressure on them is extremely high. I think San Fran will start well and play its best game in quite some time.
What if Kansas City’s offensive line struggles against the Niners’ front? We saw that when the Chiefs were routed by Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. Don’t forget, the top-end talent edge belongs to San Fran.
The Niners could have won multiple Super Bowls since 2020, but they just haven’t gotten the breaks. They will make their own luck this Sunday and head home as Super Bowl champions.
PICK: 49ers (-127 moneyline) to win outright
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
Pick No. 2: Travis Kelce — Over/Under 0.5 Rushing Attempts
We’ve seen Andy Reid call for direct snaps to Travis Kelce on third-and-short, fourth-and-short and near-the goal-line situations.
I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw it again on Sunday. At +750, I’m willing to find out if I’m right.
PICK: Travis Kelce Over 0.5 rush attempts (+750)
Taylor Swift Super Bowl Props: connecting lucky number 13 to Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Pick No. 3: Patrick Mahomes — Over/Under 4.5 Rushing Attempts
There are multiple avenues for Mahomes’ rush attempts to go over the number.
If the Chiefs are winning late, there’s a real good chance we’ll get some kneel downs to help the cause. But during the run of play, Kansas City’s offense may see a bunch of Mahomes scrambles if his offensive line is struggling or if his wide receivers can’t get open.
He’s gone over this total in each of his past two games, and remember last year — despite being hobbled — the biggest play of Super Bowl LVII was a Mahomes scramble. The bigger the game, the more we see Mahomes use his legs.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 rushing attempts
Pick No. 4: 49ers Score Third-Quarter Touchdown
If the Niners win the toss, obviously, I’d like this wager even more, but we don’t know what will happen with the coin toss.
So, I will go with what has been a much different Niners offense after halftime the past two games. Again, if the Niners win the toss, we know they will get the ball to start the third quarter and that opens up a bunch of opportunities, like playing the Niners to win the third quarter.
PICK: 49ers (-105) to score a touchdown in third quarter
Pick No. 5: Jake Moody Over/Under 7.5 Points Scored
People are predictably down on Jake Moody, but this doesn’t seem like a ridiculous ask from the kicker, who has missed some lengthy kicks this postseason.
We know Kyle Shanahan has a tendency to be conservative when it comes to going for it or kicking a field goal, so Moody should get a couple of chances indoors.
I also like the Niners chances to score two TDs. If we get that, we’ll hit eight and cash a ticket.
PICK: Jake Moody (+110) Over 7.5 points scored
Pick No. 6: 49ers Time of Possession
I’m a big fan of this bet. Regardless of the score — and I think most people feel neither team will run away — I can see the Niners controlling the clock for a good chunk of the game.
Lots of Christian McCaffrey running. Short passes. Using the middle of the field. Helping your defense by keeping Mahomes off the field.
Remember, too, this is a Chiefs offense that went three-and-out quite a bit after the two first-half TD drives against the Ravens and has had problems with drops during the course of the season.
PICK: 49ers (-115) most time of possession
Best Super Bowl cross-sport prop bets featuring Travis Kelce and Caitlin Clark
Pick No. 7: Gilgeous-Alexander and Valdes-Scantling Cross-Sport Prop
This is a prop I found at The SuperBook. If you’re in Las Vegas, swing by and say hello to my guys John Murray and Jay Kornegay!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder put up 43 points the last time he faced the Sacramento Kings, and now with Joel Embiid out of the MVP race, SGA has a real chance to make a case for the award.
No better showcase than Super Bowl Sunday!
I’m expecting at least 40 points, which means we’d need 27 yards or fewer from Marquez Valdes-Scantling, a feat he achieved in 14 games this season — despite the two big games he had vs. Buffalo and Baltimore.
PICK: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-110) points -12.5 against Sacramento Over Marquez Valdes-Scantling receiving yards
Pick No. 8: Caitlin Clark-Travis Kelce Cross Sport Prop
This is another wager I found among the many props at The SuperBook. One would have to think Chiefs fan Caitlin Clark is good for at least six 3-pointers against Nebraska, a team that she went for 38 points and eight 3-pointers against just two weeks ago.
I’d feel good if we entered Sunday night in a position where it took seven Kelce receptions to beat us. And there’s always a chance that number could be even higher if Clark goes full beast mode for the Iowa Hawkeyes.
PICK: Caitlin Clark 3-pointers vs. Nebraska (-110) + 1/2 vs. Travis Kelce receptions
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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