FOX sports betting analyst
Welcome back to another week of my best college football bets, also known as Best Pac-12 Weekly Wagers. what can i say I love my conference!
And we’re starting to heat up as the season gets longer.
Check out the four games on the slate this week that I like (with odds via FOX Bet).
Colorado at number 8 USC (9:30 p.m. ET Friday, FS1)
I go back to what worked last week against Colorado, which is taking the Buffaloes’ opponent’s team total for the first half.
USC’s potent scoring attack ranks eighth in the nation, averaging 21.4 points per game in the first half. Colorado is near the bottom of the game, allowing nearly 21 points in the first half. The Trojans come out smoking every weekend as Lincoln Riley throws in new plays that attack opposing defenses. SC tends to shut down once in the lead. With UCLA looming next weekend and a decimated receiving corps and offensive line, once USC gets that big of a lead, the Trojans will shut it down quickly.
I like USC pouring in the points early.
TO PICK UP: USC First Half Team Total Over 24.5 Pts
Stanford at number 11 Utah (10 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)
Stanford has it packed for the season.
After the win against Notre Dame just three weeks ago, the Cardinal lost 38-13 to UCLA and 52-14 to Washington State. Stanford hasn’t scored more than 16 points in a game since Oct. 8. The Cardinal are battling injuries to running backs and offensive linemen. Without any depth or elite talent at receiver, they simply cannot move the ball on offense. Now they’re headed to Utah and they’re about to dominate.
Utah is dealing with its own injury problems. The Utes lost their best defensive lineman of the season this week, and a couple of their top position weapons likely won’t play much this weekend. However, Utah still dominated Arizona last weekend, and with Cam Rising at quarterback, they’ve dominated every non-elite team they’ve faced.
In Week 10, the Utes covered against Arizona. They also covered against Oregon State, Arizona State and San Diego State. Utah ranks 10th in offensive points per unit and 46th in defensive points per unit. Opponent Stanford ranks 95th in rushing offense and 108th in scoring defense.
There is some concern about a late backdoor cover, but once again, Stanford has shown no real ability to make things interesting with these late covers.
TO PICK UP: Utah (-24 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 24 points
Arizona at number 12 UCLA (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
If you read what I wrote about Colorado-USC, most of it will apply to this game.
The best bet against Arizona is to get their opponent to score a ton of points. Arizona ranks 28th in points per rushing defense, 131st in rushing percentage and 129th in passing percentage. The Wildcats allowed 49 points to Cal, Oregon and Washington, then 45 to USC and Utah.
Now they go on the road to face a UCLA offense that ranks fourth in points per drive, sixth in rushing percentage and third in passing percentage. UCLA just rushed for over 400 yards without its starting running back against Arizona State. I would expect the same outing this weekend, with or without running back Zach Charbonnet. UCLA is averaging 40.8 points per game with this explosive offense.
I like UCLA Over 48.5 points in this contest.
TO PICK UP: Arizona Team Total Over 48.5 Points Scored at FOX Bet
Washington at number 8 Oregon (7 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX App and FOX Sports)
It’s the week of the Oregon-Washington rivalry. But I’m not sure if it’s a rivalry since Oregon has won 20 of the last 26 games. Remember when Kenny Wheaton sprinted into the west end of Autzen Stadium in 1994? Yes, the Ducks have been pounding UW for a long time.
If you’re not interested in the nearly 30-year-old story, I have a more recent fun fact for you. Oregon has won 15 of its last 17 games, including a 12-game winning streak from 2004 to 2015. Anyway, I digress. Let’s talk about this weekend’s game.
Even though the Ducks only scored three points in Week 1, Oregon’s offense this season has to be considered one of the best in the country. The Ducks lead the nation in points per drive, are first in rushing and passing yards, and have an offensive line that has allowed zero sacks this season. Quarterback Bo Nix has thrown for 2,495 yards while completing nearly 74% of his passes. He has 457 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. That’s why Nix is firmly in Heisman consideration.
The reason for Oregon’s offensive success is simple. The team has a very aggressive offensive attack and a complex rushing attack that changes every week. The Ducks’ passing attack offers plenty of opportunities down the field, but it’s still “easy” enough for Nix to read the defense and get the ball out. For these reasons, the Ducks are scoring at will. They have played eight games in a row where they have scored more than 40 points this season. This is the the longest streak in the country.
You have to have a good defense to stop an offense like that. Sorry Husky fans, but Washington’s defense is not good. Yards allowed is a horrible stat for success rate, especially when you’ve been torched by three top-50 conference opponents in offensive efficiency and you’ve allowed at least 38 points in three of four of those games. UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona combined for 1,422 yards at an average of seven yards per play when they played Washington, and the Huskies’ defense allowed a 60 percent third-down conversion rate in those contests.
Here are more of Washington’s stats this season: UW ranks 124th on third down, 97th in points per drive, 90th in rushing percentage and 99th in passing percentage. The team’s defensive line wreaks havoc, but that has yet to matter to Oregon’s offensive line this season.
All of which means Oregon will score and score and score against Washington on Saturday.
With Washington’s ability to score quickly as well, the Ducks will keep their foot on the gas throughout the game. Coach Dan Lanning’s aggressive nature also leads to more points, as the Ducks routinely do so on fourth down, including in their own territory.
I’ve also noticed that the Ducks’ offensive staff has an eye toward boosting Nix’s stats lately, which could play a role in his desire to keep scoring.
TO PICK UP: Oregon Team Total Over 42 Points Scored at FOX Bet
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