At home is where the heart is, and the money, if inflationary trends do not cool.
This is according to the latest survey of Deutsche Bank investors, who say that property will be their most preferred buying and holding asset class, if inflation remains high, averaging between 3% and 5% over the next decade.
“Despite being shot around the world during the pandemic, property is the preferred stock store in an inflationary environment, while stocks outperformed gold despite the latter’s high performance during the 1970s.” said Jim Reid, head of thematic research and strategist. Tim Wessel, in the poll published Monday.
43% of respondents said property was the best buy and hold option, followed by 33% opting for developed market shares and 15% opting for gold. Cryptocurrencies “were not on the radar”, selected by 1% as the main asset, just behind the 4% cash.
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Data released last week showed the US inflation rate slowed to 6.3% in April from a 40-year high of 6.6% last month. previous and marked the first fall in a year and a half.
Deutsche Bank had more than 560 responses to its May 25-27 survey.
Among other highlights, 69% of respondents said they believe the only way to control rising inflation is through recession, while 61% said they believe the Fed will try to bring inflation back to normal. ‘target even with the risk of an economic slowdown.
Only about a quarter of respondents believe that the Fed will resort to a 75 basis point rise in the next 18 months, while more than half see the European Central Bank join the Fed by raising rates in 50 basis points at some point. German annual inflation hit a 50-year high in May, according to data released on Monday.
Should a recession hit the United States, 78% of respondents see it as the end of 2023, an increase of 61% in April and 31% in February.
Finally, respondents were asked if the actions of developed markets have bottomed out for at least a few months. Last week, the S&P 500 SPX
and Nasdaq Composite COMP,
broke seven weeks in a row of falls. But two-thirds of respondents say the bottom line is not yet.
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