Week 10 of NFL The season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to continue giving you the edge you need to turn a profit!
Last week piece highlighted several winners we predicted. For starters, the underdogs continued to dominate, going 7-3 against the spread (ATS) (70%) and 4-6 straight up (SU) (40%). Besides, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens improved its record in prime time games to 10-6 ATS (62.5%) and 12-4 SU (75%) with a 27-13 blowout win over New Orleans Saints. And finally, the New England Patriots dominated the Indianapolis Colts in a 26-3 win, improving their record to 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) and 13-6 SU (68.4%) against Indianapolis under Bill Belichick.
As always, we took a deep dive into historical regular season data to identify the top trends for the coming week. We also looked at team and player specific trends, which will help inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let’s go in and have fun!
Brady is perfect in international games, the favorites have historically dominated as well
According to our database, there have been 43 regular season international games played in Mexico, Canada and England since the 2005 season. Tom Brady He has played in three of those matchups, going a perfect 3-0 ATS and SU. Two of these matches took place in London and the other in Mexico City. This will be the first time he plays in an international match as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneerswith its first three instances with the New England Patriots. However, Brady was a favorite in all three games and is currently a three-point favorite at FOX Bet against him Seattle Seahawks in Sunday’s game in Munich.
In the 43 international games played, the favorites were a whopping 25-17-1 ATS (59.5%) and 30-12-1 SU (71.4%). Additionally, Brady and the Buccaneers have lost two straight games both ATS and SU away from Raymond James Stadium. Has not lost three straight ATS and SU away from home since 2015-16.
The Eagles should cover against the Commanders
The Philadelphia Eagles remain the only unbeaten team in the league after a 12-point win over the Houston Texans last Thursday, and while they didn’t cover the 14-point spread, we like them covering this week against the Commanders of Washington. Philly is 7-3-1 ATS (70%) and 9-2 SU (81.8%) against Washington since 2017, including a 24-8 win in Week 3 this season. The Birds have also dominated Monday night games, going 9-5 ATS (64.3%) and 10-4 SU (71.4%) in those matchups since 2013. Conversely, Washington has struggled on Monday in on the night, going 3-11 ATS (21.4). %) and SU in this same interval.
It should also be noted that the Eagles have some Jalen hurts under center, who is in the top three for MVP odds at most sportsbooks. As the favorite, Hurts is 8-6-1 ATS (57.1%) and 13-2 SU (86.7%) as a starter. FOX Bet currently has Philadelphia as the favorite with 10.5 points; as nine-to-12-point favorites, they are 5-5-1 ATS (50%) and 10-1 SU (90.9%) since 2012.
The Bills should cover against the Vikings… IF Josh Allen plays!
We mentioned Jalen Hurts as an MVP favorite and Josh Allen it’s also very much in the mix. However, the Buffalo Bills the signal caller is dealing with a elbow injury who has set his condition for Sunday’s match against the Minnesota Vikings as questionable. Minnesota enters the game as a 3.5-point underdog according to FOX Bet, despite boasting a 7-1 record this season. This line was originally at seven before the revelation of Allen’s injury. In case of playing, the following data points to the invoices that cover:
- The records are 17-10-3 ATS (63%) and 25-5 SU (83.3%) as the home favorite under Sean McDermott, with Josh Allen under center for 25 of those 30 games (83.3%) .
- The records are 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) and 14-5 SU (73.7%) when a two-to-four-point favorite under Sean McDermott, with Josh Allen starting 14 of those 19 games (73.7%).
- The records are 14-7-2 ATS (66.7%) and 16-7 SU (69.6%) when coming off a loss under Sean McDermott; Josh Allen was the starting quarterback for 17 of those 23 games (73.9%).
It also doesn’t hurt that the Vikings have struggled as road underdogs, going 8-12-1 ATS (40%) and 5-16 SU (23.8%) in those situations since 2018. However, if Allen no suit up for Buffalo, it might be worth betting on the Vikings money line. The Bills haven’t started a backup since 2018, when Derek Anderson, Nathan Peterman and Matt Barkley started. Over the last 10 years, Buffalo is 5-10 ATS (33.3%) and 4-11 SU (26.7%) when starting a backup quarterback. Additionally, teams entering a game as underdogs with a 7-1 SU record (87.5%) are 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) and 11-12 SU (47.8% ) since 1968.
McVay owns the Cardinals, but Kingsbury dominates as a road underdog
This matchup got a lot more interesting once it broke down Matthew Stafford is within concussion protocol. Sean McVay has been almost perfect against him Arizona Cardinals in his term as Branches of Los Angeles head coach, going 10-1 ATS (90.9%) and SU against them since his first season at the helm. However, 10 of those 11 games had Stafford o Jared Goff under center John Wolford started in that lone game, covering and winning as a one-point favorite in Week 17 of the 2020 season.
On the other hand, Kliff Kingsbury has historically been dominant as a road underdog. The Cardinals head coach is 15-5-1 ATS (75%) and 13-8 SU (61.9%) in those situations for his career, with the under in 12 of those 21 games ( 57.1%). Kyler Murray was under center in 19 of those matchups, going 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) and 11-8 SU (57.9%).
If you’re interested in betting either way, FOX Bet originally had Los Angeles as a 3-point favorite, but have now moved to the Rams as a 1.5-point favorite.
Historical data points to Falcons vs. Panthers coverage
Over the past 20 seasons, 33 teams have fired their coach during the regular season, with the Carolina Panthers most recently released by Matt Rhule earlier this year. The Indianapolis Colts fired Frank Reich earlier this week and will now be the 34th team on this list. In the week following their coach’s firing, the teams went 15-18 SU (45.5%) and 17-16 ATS (51.5%). While those numbers may sound appealing, there are a few other trends that point to betting against the Panthers this week.
First, Carolina is 1-30 ATS (3.2%) and 6-25 SU (19.4%) when allowing just 17+ points since 2020. Plus, they’re coming off a 42- 21 against the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Teams that have given up 40+ points in their previous game are 3-15 ATS (16.7%) and 2-13 SU (13.3%) over the last 20 seasons. The Panthers are a dismal 5-18 ATS (21.7%) over their last 23 games and have also committed stay with PJ Walker at quarterback Since 2019, Carolina is 5-11 ATS (31.3%) and 3-13 SU (18.8%) when starting a backup quarterback.
FOX Bet currently has the Atlanta Falcons as three-point favorites in Thursday night’s game. They are currently tied for the top of the NFC South with Tampa Bay and are already just one win away from surpassing their preseason win total of 4.5. The Falcons also have one of the best coverage rates in the league this season at 6-3 ATS (66.7%).
The Cowboys should cover against the Packers
The Dallas Cowboys they’re tied for the best coverage rate in the league at 6-2 ATS (75%) and are struggling Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field this Sunday. Aaron Rodgers He’s rarely been an underdog at home, going 5-1 ATS (83.3%) in the six regular season matchups where he’s gone. The seventh instance will take place this week as FOX Bet has the Packers as under five points. While Rodgers’ 18-9 ATS record (66.7%) at home since 2019 is the best of any starting quarterback in that span, there are several trends pointing to betting on the Cowboys.
First, Dallas is 8-6 ATS (57.1%) and 10-4 SU (71.4%) against NFC North opponents since 2016, with an overshot in 11 of those games (78 .6%). Mike McCarthy’s group is also coming off a bye, a situation in which he has thrived. In his head coaching career, McCarthy is 12-3-1 ATS (80%) and 11-5 SU (68.8%) coming off a bye. The Cowboys are also 6-4 ATS (60%) and 7-3 SU (70%) since the bye since 2013, with the overage in all 10 games! Dak Prescott he also thrives as a starter when favored on the road, going 15-8-1 ATS (65.2%) and 17-7 SU (70.8%) in his career.
So are you ready to make some NFL Week 10 bets? Head over to Bet FOX now for all your bets!
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