NFL odds Week 11: Best bets for Jets-Patriots, Oregon-Utah and more

Buckle up for another quarterback-related play.

Our best bets (27-20-1) are on the green, and I’m rolling with four plays over the next few days. This space is also not the place for a million picks or to talk about five teams. These are my favorite games.

Let’s work with probabilities courtesy of Bet FOX.

number 10 Utah at number 12 Oregon (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

Don’t expect Bo Nix to play this Saturday.

Rumors about Nix’s knee surfaced on Wednesday and the betting line reacted accordingly. Oregon went from a 3-point favorite to a 2-point underdog in a couple of hours, which tells you the betting market believes the hype.

The line will run even further if Nix is ​​discarded.

Also, Utah’s power play style has been a problem for Oregon for the past few years and I don’t expect that to change. Utes running back Tavion Thomas rushed for 180 yards last week and his number will be called quite a bit in this one.

Put anything under a field goal.

TO PICK UP: Utah (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Should you bet undefeated TCU to beat Baylor?

Should you bet undefeated TCU to beat Baylor?

Betting analyst Sam Panayotovich breaks down the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Baylor Bears.

Illinois in number 3 Michigan (Saturday at noon ET, ABC)

The Fighting Illini are starting to show their cracks.

After national pundits began drooling over Illinois’ stingy defense, Bret Bielema’s squad gave up 23 points to Michigan State and 31 to Purdue in back-to-back home losses. This team was never a serious contender to make big waves and now, the Illini face their toughest opponent yet.

The Wolverines are a freight train right now, and they’re running over everyone in their path. Effort is often half the battle in these late-season games and with Michigan still trying to prove it belongs in the College Football Playoff, regardless of what happens against Ohio State, a blowout is very possible.

I like Big Blue for three touchdowns.

TO PICK UP: Michigan (-17.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 17.5 points

jets at patriots (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Yes, I bet Zach Wilson vs. Bill Belichick.

My folks in Boston aren’t too happy about it, but it is what it is. I think the Jets are a better football team. And let’s not act like Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is anything special, either. This line stinks too. New England was a 3-point favorite in New York, and now it’s only -3 at home?!

If Wilson can avoid the big turnover, the Jets can easily win against these overrated Patriots. He gashed New England for 355 yards passing in the last meeting, but three interceptions were his downfall. If he protects the rock, the Jets will be in business. I mean, come on, the three-win Bears came into Foxborough and won last month.

This looks like a 20-17 game either way.

TO PICK UP: Jets (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 3.5 points (or win outright)

cardinals vs. 49ers at Mexico City (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

This is a numbers crunch for me, plain and simple.

Most sportsbooks in Las Vegas opened the game at Niners -6, and it has soared with the “7”, which is the most important number in football. I’ve been monitoring the injury situation of Kyler Murray and Nuk Hopkins closely and I think both will be tested on Monday night in Mexico.

Also, San Francisco hasn’t made punters money as favorites over the past three years. The Niners are 12-17 against the spread when they put up points, but the betting public can’t get enough because of all their flashers like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

Inflation works in our favor in this case.

TO PICK UP: Cardinals (+8.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 8.5 points (or win outright)

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