The Cleveland Browns travel to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills in a Week 11 NFL matchup.
The Browns are coming off a 39-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins, while the Bills are reeling from a 33-30 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, their second straight loss.
Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Browns-Bills game, from point spread, money line, Over/Under total and Warren Sharp stats (odds via FOX Bet ):
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RELATED: Week 11 Lines, Odds
brown at invoices (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Distribution of points: invoices -8.5 (Mascot favored to win by more than XX points, otherwise Browns cover)
Moneyline: Bills -400 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.50 total); Browns +280 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $38 total)
Total Over/Under Score: 43.5 points scored by the two teams together
Insights from the FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:
The weather is the first thing to consider in a late season game in Buffalo. And of course, this Sunday is not looking pretty. As of Thursday morning, there is an 80% chance of snow with temperatures in the upper 20s. Temperatures appear to be in the mid-teens and winds in the upper-teens with gusts of 30 mph.
If this prediction comes to fruition, it will be difficult to play a standard game.
By this, I mean that going beyond 10-15 meters will be an adventure. The kick will depend on which direction the wind is blowing. And forget about kicking field goals beyond standard extra point distances.
Could the weather end up being so shocking? Sure, but as of now, we need to predict the match using the predicted time, so here we go.
Both teams will have to turn to the run more often.
The problem for the Bills is their defense lately. They have allowed 471 rushing yards in their last three games. From an efficiency perspective, they have allowed:
- 5.5 yards per carry after contact, 32nd
- 32% of carries to gain a first down or touchdown, 31st
- 54.7% success, 27th
And that was by playing three run offenses worse than the third-ranked Cleveland Browns.
That’s been a stark contrast to how the Bills started the first six weeks of the season, where they allowed opposing running backs just 3.1 YPC, 33% completion and 2.5 yards after contact.
Unless the weather is absolutely terrible, where passing is next to impossible and the Bills can stack the box without getting punished through the air, we should expect Nick Chubb to have a good outing against this current Bills defense.
Unlike the Bills’ recent struggles, the Browns have been terrible against the run pretty much all season.
On the season, the Browns rank as the NFL’s worst defense in a variety of metrics and show no signs of improvement.
This will keep the door open for accounts to run efficiently if they can’t come through as often as they’d like due to time.
From a betting perspective, with games like this, the wisest thing to do is to exit in front of the projected line move. And that would be having bet the Under at the beginning of the week. But at this point, with a total of 41, we really need to be sure that the prediction will hold before we look to bet against points.
Since 2019, the Bills have hosted six games starting in Week 8 with winds over 17 mph. Four of the six games were below the total. The total average was 41 points, and the average points scored in the games was only 35.7. If the winds were over 20 mph, the totals were 3-1 under, with an average score of just 33.5 points.
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