NFL odds Week 11: The Jets are soaring, Bears are roaring, and more bets

The NFL is now in Week 11 and the stakes are only getting higher as teams begin to battle for playoff positions.

After their bye week, my New York Jets return to the slate this week with a matchup against their nemesis in New England. No surprises here as you know who I’m putting my money on.

Not to be outdone, the Giants also appear in my top picks this week, but I’m fading them. Sorry, G-Men fans.

So without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 11 (with odds via FOX Bet).

Belichick fires on Craig’s Jets ahead of Pats rematch

Belichick fires on Craig's Jets ahead of Pats rematch

Watch as Craig and Geoff Schwartz decide what Zach Wilson and the Jets will need to do to get out of Week 11 with a win.

jets at patriots (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Jets have lost 13 straight to the Patriots, and Zach Wilson has looked completely confused in three meetings against Bill Belichick (two TDs, seven INTs).

Both teams are coming off a bye, but in a strange twist, Belichick hasn’t been great on a bye at home, going 1-7 against the stretch (ATS).

The Jets took money earlier this week, dropping the line from 4.5 to 3.5.

All anyone remembers from the meeting three weeks ago is Zach Wilson struggling with three interceptions. But the reality is that the Jets led 10-3 and got a game-tying pick-six before halftime. However, a penalty flag returned the TD and the Jets melted down in the second half.

The Patriots offense is still painfully bad (25th in efficiency), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bailey Zappe take over from an ineffective one Mac Jones.

TO PICK UP: Jets (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 3.5 points (or win outright)

Justin Fields on pace to break single-season QB rushing record

Justin Fields on pace to break single-season QB rushing record

Colin Cowherd applauds the bones for “doing good” in QB and other areas.

bears at Falcons (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

The Bears don’t play enough defense to be favored, as we learned Sunday, with a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter at home in a loss to the Lions.

But is Atlanta worthy of being favored, even outside of the mini-bye week, after losing to Carolina last Thursday?

The smart move here is to bet the Over and wait for the points to come. The Bears have scored 29+ points in three straight games…and lost them all.

The Bears have rushed for 225 yards or more in five straight games, and that streak will continue here. Atlanta’s run defense was at one point in the top 10 in the league, but in the last two games it was run over by Joe Mixon (five TDs) and Carolina (232 yards).

TO PICK UP: Over 49.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

lions at giants (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Dan Campbell hadn’t won a game as Lions manager, but a two-year hiatus on the road ended Sunday with a one-run victory over Chicago. Sure, they trailed by 14 in the fourth quarter and were held to a negative 1.5 yards per play, but they played a button game (only two penalties, zero turnovers) against a bad Chicago defense to win.

It will be more difficult against the Giants, who lead the league in blitz percentage (34.4%). Jared Goff has only faced Wink Martindale-led defenses twice, losing a close one last year and then breaking out in 2019 with the bouquets.

The Giants are 7-2, but had a hard time pulling away from the jeans last week when Houston imploded in the red zone (1-for-6). If it seems like every Giants game is close, that’s because…they are. All seven wins have come by eight points or less. As long as the temps don’t drop into the 20’s I can ride here with the lions if you can get the hook. If not, it’s a pass.

TO PICK UP: lions (if the line reaches +3.5 at FOX Bet) lose by less than 3.5 points (or win outright)

Jason McIntyre is a betting analyst for FOX Sports and also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on all of the network’s shows. In 2017, McIntyre began producing NFL, college football and NBA betting content for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before coming to FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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