NFL odds Week 11: Why Patrick Mahomes will cover against Chargers, best trends


Week 11 of NFL The season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to continue giving you the edge you need to turn a profit!

Last week piece we highlighted a few winners we predicted as well as a few shockers. first, Tom Brady continued his perfect streak in international games, improving to 4-0 against the spread (ATS) and direct (SU) with a win and coverage against the Seattle Seahawks in Munich Also, Kliff Kingsbury continued his dominant streak as a road underdog — now 16-5-1 ATS (76.2%) and 14-8 SU (63.6%) in those situations after a win against him Branches of Los Angeles. However, to our surprise, the Philadelphia Eagles didn’t cover as double-digit favorites against the Commanders of Washington, Josh Allen played by Buffalo Bills and lost as home favorite against the Minnesota Vikings and the Carolina Panthers they took revenge in the second meeting against the Atlanta Falcons!

As always, we took a deep dive into historical regular season data to identify the top trends for the coming week. We also looked at team and player specific trends, which will help inform you on who to bet on this week.

Let’s go in and have fun!

Are Tom Brady’s Bucs back after returning to first place in the NFC South?

Are Tom Brady's Bucs back after returning to first place in the NFC South?

The Tampa Bay Bucs cruised to a 21-16 victory in Germany against the hot-headed Seattle Seahawks.

Patrick Mahomes is incredible as a six-to-10 point favorite

The header says it all here, as the MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes is favorite with 6.5 points this Sunday night at Los Angeles Chargers. The Kansas City Chiefs The quarterback is a whopping 16-10 ATS (61.5%) and 25-1 SU (96.2%) as a six-to-10 point favorite when he starts in those situations.

Mahomes has also won five Sunday Night Football starts (including the postseason), going 4-1 ATS (80%) in those games. The game will be held at SoFi Stadium, but Mahomes has also thrived on the road against the Chargers, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS (75%) when playing them away from Arrowhead. Overall on the road, he is 23-13-1 ATS (63.9%) in his career, as well as a dominant 9-4 ATS (69.2%) and 13-0 SU when playing opponents in AFC West on the road.

Another key point in the Chiefs’ direction is the Chargers’ recent struggles as a home underdog. Since 2015, Los Angeles is 4-9 ATS (30.8%) and 3-10 SU (23.1%) when not favored as the home team.

The Patriots should continue to dominate against the Jets

The New England Patriots host the New York Jets this Sunday as 3.5 point favorites at FOX Bet. We noted this trend in Week 8, and we were right to pick Bill Belichick’s team. The story is the same for Week 11, and this time the Pats will be at home at Gillette Stadium.

Here’s a rundown of all the stats that highlight New England’s dominance against New York under Belichick:

  • The Patriots are 74-58-2 ATS (56.1%) and 97-37 SU (72.4%) against AFC East opponents under Bill Belichick, with the Under hitting in 70 of those games ( 52.2%).
  • The Patriots are 25-20 ATS (55.6%) and 35-10 SU (77.8%) against Bill Belichick’s Jets
  • Mac Jones is 9-6-1 ATS (60%) and 11-5 SU (68.8%) as a starter when he’s a career favorite.
  • Jets are 5-12-1 ATS (29.4%) and 3-15 SU (16.7%) on the road vs. AFC East opponents since 2016
  • Jets are 3-7 ATS (30%) and 1-9 SU (10%) when fired since 2012

Historical data points to Giants coverage against Lions

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the season has been the unbridled success of the New York Giants. With a win last week, Brian Daboll’s squad improved to 7-2 SU (77.8%), also with that ATS record. This is the Giants’ best ATS start since they accomplished the same record in 2008.

This week they are three point favorites against the Detroit Lions on FOX Bet. We took a dive into the data from the last 23 seasons and found some strong trends. Since 1999, teams that enter a game with a 7-2 record AND are favored at home are 15-13-1 ATS (53.6%) and 25-4 SU (86.2%) in their next match When you take the same situation but look at the teams that were just favored between one and 6.5 pointsthey were 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) and 17-2 SU (89.5%) in the next matchup.

Another point to note is the pace with which the Giants have hit the Under at home. Since 2020, New York has hit the Under in 17 of 21 games (81%).

The Lions have also struggled as road underdogs under Dan Campbell, going 6-6 ATS (50%) and 1-11 SU (8.3%), and the Under hit in eight of those 12 games ( 66.7%).

The Bills should bounce back against the Browns

Last week we chose Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills to cover as favorites against the Vikings. The result was an overtime victory for Minnesota in what was arguably the most entertaining game of the season. That said, the numbers point to a recovery in the accounts this week against the Cleveland Brownswith FOX Bet marking them as 7.5 point favourites.

Buffalo allowed 33 points in a home loss to Minnesota last week. With Josh Allen under center, the Bills are 8-2-1 ATS (80%) after allowing 28 or more points in their previous game. Since 2017, the Under has hit 85.7% of the time when playing at home after giving up 30 or more points in its previous home game.

Sean McDermott also has several trends that point to betting on him and the Bills this weekend, as Buffalo is 12-6-2 ATS (66.7%) and 17-3 SU (85%) as an overtime favorite of 7 points under his mandate. He is also 17-11-3 ATS (60.7%) and 25-6 SU (80.6%) as a home favorite in his head coaching career. Additionally, the Browns have struggled away from Cleveland, losing seven of their last eight road games.

Titans on historic home run

That last one is more of a nugget we wanted to put on your radar than a trend. After a 0-2 at the beginning of the season, the Tennessee Titans they have covered seven games in a row, winning six of them. Not only is it the longest coverage streak in the league right now, but it’s also the first time they’ve covered in seven straight games since 2008. There have only been six teams in the last decade to cover in eight straight games, with the last of the year Green Bay Packers being the last team to do so.

The Titans are also 12-8 ATS (60%) and 10-10 SU (50%) as road underdogs under Mike Vrabel. Still, it’s worth mentioning that Green Bay has thrived in Thursday night games, going 10-4-1 ATS (71.4%) and 10-5 SU (66.7%) in those matchups since of 2010.

So are you ready to place some bets on NFL Week 11? Head over to Bet FOX now for all your bets!

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