Co-host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
With Week 15 of the NFL approaching, many contenders are facing serious questions heading into the season’s final stretch.
Can the Dallas Cowboys erase recent history and make their first deep playoff run this century? After a lackluster win against the Texans, defeating a resilient Jaguars team would calm some of the Dallas faithful.
Also, will my Jets snap their league-leading playoff drought? Their game against the Detroit Lions is loaded with playoff implications for both teams.
So without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 15 (with odds via FOX Bet).
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lions at jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
The Lions are hot, having won five of six, with a close loss to the Bills the only blemish. And two of those wins came away: in Chicago and New York, with temperatures in the 30s for both games. This is a completely different situation, as the Jets are a significantly better defense than both.
The main reason you should wait to bet on this game is the status of Quinnen Williams, arguably the best defensive tackle in the NFL. Jared Goff has historically struggled in the open air with pressure up the middle, and it’s a perfect storm if Williams can play.
New York is ninth in the NFL in net yards per play; the lions are 22nd. The Jets outgained the Vikings by 200 yards in a narrow loss two weeks ago; they held Buffalo to their fewest yards this season in a close loss last week.
I like my Jets in this place.
TO PICK UP: Jets (-105 money at FOX Bet) to win outright
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Steelers at panthers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
After Carolina beat Seattle, it now controls its own playoff destiny.
The Panthers have swept four straight, using a potent running game and aggressive defense to defeat some below-average opponents (Atlanta, Denver, Seattle).
Is Pittsburgh good? Well, QB Kenny Pickett suffered his second concussion in the last six weeks, meaning we might not see him here, and Mitchell Trubisky will start, but should Sam Darnold be favored over anyone?
Sure, the Steelers were pushed by Baltimore’s ground game last week (215 yards, 5.1 ypc), and Carolina wants to do that, as evidenced by its rushing totals in its last three wins: 223, 185 and 232.
I can’t back Trubisky here, but I’m reluctant to put money on Sam Darnold against TJ Watt and a very good defense. Instead, I’ll look for a slow start.
TO PICK UP: Under 19 1st Half Points Scored by Both Teams Combined at FOX Bet
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cowboys at jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Afterward, the Cowboys looked soft against it Houstonand the Jags hit the titans on the road, that figure went from -6 in the view of the future to -4.
Is Dallas underrated? They have an elite defense that should have their way with Jacksonville’s offensive line. Trevor Lawrence he wasn’t fired against battered Tennessee, but the crows, foals i eagles got it four times each; KC fired five. A week later Micah Parsons was dominated by Laremy Tunsilexpect a recovery performance vs Cam Robinson.
The Jaguars offense was so impressive against Tennessee that they went from 19th to 16th in net yards per play. Dallas is fifth. You could wait on this one as it can get to four points later in the week, but give me the Cowboys.
TO PICK UP: Cowboys (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points
patriots at Raiders (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
In the first matchup between Bill Belichick and his longtime assistant Josh McDaniels, how can you not take Belichick?
The spot isn’t great for New England — the Raiders have extra time to prepare, after playing last Thursday, and the Patriots stay in Arizona after playing the Cardinals instead of traveling back to Boston. We just saw Miami try it after the 49ers game, and they produced their worst offensive performance of the season, for what it’s worth.
The Raiders are in historically bad territory, with four double-digit halftime leads. The Patriots aren’t good by any means (12th in overall efficiency), but the Raiders are 31st in defense, and that looks like a coaching mismatch.
TO PICK UP: Patriots (-1.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points
Jason McIntyre is a betting analyst for FOX Sports and also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on all of the network’s shows. In 2017, McIntyre began producing NFL, college football and NBA betting content for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before coming to FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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