NFL odds Week 16: Best bets for Packers-Dolphins, Commanders-49ers

We’ve reached the point in the NFL season where more games are played on Saturday than Sunday. Only three matches are played on Christmas Day. Please don’t forget this while betting for week 16.

Our best bets (36-32-1) are on the green, and I’m shooting with three shots on the weekend. This space is also not the place for a million picks or to talk about five teams. These are my favorite games.

Let’s work with the odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Finally, the Giants won their eighth game.

I was sweating my “Over 7” Season Passes. for about a month, and now I can sleep at night after New York’s upset over Washington on Sunday. Big Blue was once again covered as an underdog (they’re 8-2 ATS when scoring points), which is further proof that Brian Daboll’s staff takes care of business.

Meanwhile, Minnesota continues to trend in the wrong direction. The Vikings defense has been shredded in five straight games, and the Purple People Eaters needed the biggest comeback in NFL history to beat the lowly Colts.

I respect the oddsmakers’ respect for New York on this site.

Take the points.

COLLECT: Giants (+4.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by under 4.5 points (or win outright)

Commanders of Washington at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m., CBS)

“If you have to win, you don’t have to be that good.”

Legendary Vegas bookie Chris Andrews dropped this quote on me years ago when he was living in the desert, and I’ve been borrowing it ever since. It’s a great angle to use late in the NFL regular season when teams are fighting for playoff positions and appear to be in “must-have” spots.

The fact is, Washington’s playoff hopes have dwindled because the team formerly known as the football team failed to take care of business at home last Sunday night against the New York Giants. Now they have to hit the road and face one of the best defenses in the league with All-Pros all over the field.

Taylor Heinicke is a big story, and Chase Young is back from injured reserve, but I still don’t care. The carriage is about to turn into a pumpkin.

Give me San Francisco for two scores.

COLLECT: 49ers (-6.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6.5 points

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

Just when I thought I was out, they let me in again.

The Packers’ impressive win Monday night against the Rams has me thinking about them making a playoff push. That’s how sick I am. But seriously, Green Bay’s offensive line and wide receivers are collectively as healthy as they’ve been all season, making life easier for Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers is always dangerous in these situations, and he’d rather back the Packers than put up points with Tua Tagovailoa and the struggling Dolphins. Miami has lost three games in a row [albeit against playoff-caliber teams]and on Sunday we’ll see how he holds up to the pressure.

I think Cheeseheads attract upset.

COLLECT: Packers (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 3.5 points (or win outright)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He will probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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