Week 9 of NFL The season is upon us, and FOX Sports Research is here to continue giving you the edge you need to turn a profit!
Last week delivered a slew of surprises that trend punters across the country didn’t see coming. For starters, the underdogs continued to dominate as they went 8-6-1 against the spread (ATS) (57.1%), with six of them winning outright (SU). Also, Kliff Kingsbury recorded his first loss as a road underdog in the last two seasons, falling to 8-1 ATS and SU in that span. Undoubtedly, the biggest surprise of all came on Monday night, with the Cleveland Browns dominating the Cincinnati Bengals as three-point underdogs in a 32-13 win.
As always, we took a deep dive into historical regular season data to identify the top trends for the coming week. We also looked at team and player specific trends, which will help inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let’s go in and have fun!
Lamar Jackson shines in prime time
Lamar Jackson he’s been electric this year, throwing for over 1,600 yards and running for over 500 as well. The former MVP has 15 passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns, with just six interceptions so far this season.
With him and the Baltimore Ravens playing the New Orleans Saints on Monday night this week, we decided to see how he performs in prime time. The results were telling, as Jackson is 9-6 ATS (60%) and a whopping 11-4 SU (73.3%) in games played at 8 pm ET or later for his career.
Also, the Ravens are 5-2 ATS (71.4%) and SU against the Saints since 1996 and have also been dominant under John Harbaugh. Under his tenure, Baltimore is 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 10-3 SU (76.9%) against NFC South opponents, as well as 11-7 ATS (61.1%) and SU in the Monday night games. On the other side of the coin, the Saints are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%) in Monday games since 2015.
The underdogs continue to dominate
As mentioned above, the underdogs have consistently covered the first eight weeks of the season. We decided to look back at the last 23 years of data to see where the 2022 season ranks in terms of underdogs through the first eight weeks. His 67-51-3 ATS record (56.8%) is the fifth-best since the 2000 season, with his 67 shutouts also second-most in that span.
Some of the notable underdogs from Week 9 include Branches of Los Angeles (+2.5), Seattle Seahawks (+2), Atlanta Falcons (+3) i Carolina Panthers (+7.5). All odds via FOX Bet.
The highest coverage rates for the underprivileged in the first eight weeks
Since the year 2000
2012: 71-46-1 (60.7%)
2002: 65-47-2 (58%)
2010: 65-49-3 (57%)
2020: 66-50-1 (56.9%)
2022: 67-51-3 (56.8%)
Eagles should cover as double-digit favorites against the Texans
Picking the favorite to cover games with double-digit spreads is always difficult, but it shouldn’t be when betting on Philadelphia Eagles! The only undefeated team in the league faces the Houston Texans in a Thursday night game as 13.5-point road favorites at FOX Bet.
Almost all data points towards covering the Birds, as Philadelphia is 5-0 SU against the Texans since 2002. Philly is also 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and 11-2 SU (84.6% ) against AFC South opponents since 2010, with the Over hit in 10 of those games (76.9%). In Thursday games specifically, the Eagles are 8-5 ATS (61.5%) and SU since 2010, with the Over hitting in eight of those games (61.5%). And finally, they’re 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%) and 11-3 SU (78.6%) as double-digit favorites over the past 13 seasons.
Sean McDermott dominates as a double-digit favorite
This is the third time we’ve mentioned this trend this year, because it’s the third time that the Buffalo Bills they have been double digit favorites! The Super Bowl favorites are currently 12.5-point road favorites against the New York Jets this sunday
Since 2015, the records are 8-6 ATS (57.1%) and 9-5 SU (64.3%) against the Jets. Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo is also 7-3-2 ATS (70%) and 11-1 SU (91.7%) as a double-digit favorite, with the Under hitting in eight of those games (57.1 %). Additionally, McDermott’s team is 12-7 ATS (63.2%) and 14-5 SU (73.7%) as a road favorite under his tenure.
It also doesn’t help that the Jets are 5-11 ATS (31.3%) and 2-14 SU (12.5%) as double-digit underdogs since 2018. Additionally, the Jets are 12-16-1 ATS ( 42.9%). and 8-21 SU (27.6%) as domestic underdogs in that same period.
Dolphins should cover themselves against bears
The Miami Dolphins made headlines afterwards trading a first round pick for Bradley Chubband we like them to hedge against the Chicago bones. FOX Bet currently has them as five-point favorites at Soldier Field.
Miami has historically been successful against Chicago, going 9-4 ATS (69.2%) and SU against them since 1971. In a more recent time frame, the Dolphins are even better, going 4-1 ATS (80%) and SU against the Bears since 2002.
When favored by three to five points, the Fins are also 8-4 ATS (66.7%) and SU since 2018, with the Under in eight of those games (66.7%). The Bears have also struggled as underdogs at home, going 6-11 ATS (35.3%) and 5-12 SU (29.4%) since 2018. They’ve also gone 4-8 ATS (33.3%) and SU as three to three. less than five points in this same period. The Under also struck out in 58.3% of those games.
The story goes that the Patriots cover against the Colts
The New England Patriots they are currently favorites with 5.5 points at home against the Indianapolis Colts on FOX Bet. Bill Belichick’s group is fresh off a win over the Jets and is looking for its fourth win in five games.
Check out the following trends under Belichick’s tenure that point to betting on the Patriots this Sunday:
- The Patriots are 10-7-1 ATS (58.8%) and 12-6 SU (66.7%) against the Colts under Bill Belichick, with the Over in 13 of those games (72.2%).
- New England is 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) and 33-12 SU (73.3%) against AFC South opponents under Bill Belichick, with the Over in 31 of those games (68 .9%).
- Patriots are 88-66-4 ATS (57.1%) and 127-31 SU (80.4%) as home favorites under Bill Belichick
- New England is 64-29-4 ATS (68.8%) and 81-16 SU (83.5%) as a four-to-seven point favorite under Bill Belichick
- Patriots are 153-118-6 ATS (56.5%) and 214-63 SU (77.3%) as favorites under Bill Belichick
So are you ready to make some NFL Week 9 bets? Head over to Bet FOX now for all your bets!
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