Geoff Schwartz
FOX sports betting analyst
Welcome to the 2022 Bowl season!
Over the next four weeks, we will have 43 bowl games and it will all end on January 9th with the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Bowl season is an unpredictable time for every team due to players transferring, athletes opting out, and roster/coaching changes. All this undoubtedly affects the motivation and preparation of each team. So keep in mind that this move is made daily, sometimes to the very beginning! Keep this in mind while placing your bets.
Now, without further ado, here are my best bets for the 2022 college football bowl season (with odds via FOX Bet).
Las Vegas Bowl
Florida vs. no. 14 State of Oregon (2:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 17, ESPN)
The Las Vegas Bowl has traditionally been a place where a Pac-12 team has struggled. This game used to feature an underachieving Pac-12 team, as it did in 2006. That year, my Oregon Ducks played the best team in the Mountain West Conference, a team that was highly motivated by beat a Pac-12 program. However, with the Vegas Bowl affiliation changing after the pandemic, the advantage in this game favors the Pac-12 school.
Oregon State is 9-3, and the Beavers are coming off their first 10-win season since 2006. There’s no better chance for that to happen than against an SEC team. Just look at their roster for the bowl game. So far, no one has chosen to sit out, so you can tell they want to win. Yes, Oregon State is dealing with injuries at running back and cornerback, but otherwise, they are a healthy group.
Oregon State won nine games with its rushing attack and pass defense, both of which are underrated nationally. The Beavers rank 12th in pass rush while the Gators’ defense is 98th in stopping the run. The Gators are even worse in short-yardage rushing defense. This Beavers offense should go their way.
The Florida Gators 2022 campaign, the first under new coach Billy Napier, was up and down. They had quality wins against Utah and South Carolina, but also had brutal losses like the one against Vanderbilt. Additionally, the Gators will be missing about 30 players for this game due to suspensions and transfers. Bottom line, Florida is a team looking toward the 2023 season.
Florida QB Anthony Richardson is not playing in this game, and was the Gators’ third leading rusher. Instead, the Gators are starting Jack Miller III, who is making his first start against a formidable Beavers defense. Oregon State’s defense held USC and the Washington Huskies, two of the top offenses in the country, to 17 points apiece. Florida’s only chance to move the ball in this game will be on the ground, where the Beavers can be contained.
I’m going to take Oregon State to cover this game, even with the huge 10.5 number. It is wise to buy the halfway point to 10 or wait until the start to see if that number drops below 10.5. Either way, the Beavers are more motivated, healthier and have schematic advantages. Also, they stunk in their bowl game last season, so I expect the opposite performance this time around.
COLLECT: Oregon State (-10.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 10.5 points
College football bowl season: What the future of bowl games looks like
Joel Klatt explains what the future of the college bowl season will look like moving forward with the expansion of the College Football Playoff on the horizon.
LA Bowl
Fresno State vs. Washington State (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 17, ABC)
The Pac-12 has had a strong season, and this should be a game where it shows.
The conference already has three 10-win teams, and three more teams are hoping for their 10th bowl season wins. The Cougars weren’t one of those 10-win teams, but they did play a schedule full of them. Wazzu played five conference teams ranked in the top 22 of SP+, but lost all of those games.
However, the Cougars are a team built on defense, and I expect the defense to play well against Fresno State’s potent passing attack. Despite being forced to use multiple quarterbacks, the Bulldogs were 18th in passing success percentage. Now they finally have a healthy starter in Jake Haener.
The Bulldogs also achieved this feat without a quality offensive line. This is where the Cougars have a huge advantage. Their defensive line ranks 22nd in turnover rate. So they’ll take it Saturday, even without their best defenseman on the roster in Daiyan Henley, who opted out.
On the other hand, the Fresno Bulldogs defense doesn’t match up well with the Cougars. Sure, Washington State’s offense was hit or miss this season behind Cam Ward, but Fresno State hasn’t played an offense ranked better than 92nd in conference play! Ward is an excellent athlete, and he used his legs more and more to create plays as the season progressed. This will be a game where Cam should have monster numbers using this strategy. By default, the Cougars should be able to move the ball.
I’ll take the Cougars to cover, and I also think they win outright.
COLLECT: Washington State (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 3 points (or win outright)
Holiday Bowl preview: Will No. 15 Oregon face North Carolina?
FOX Sports Senior College Football Analyst Joel Klatt previews the Holiday Bowl between the No. 15 Oregon Ducks and the North Carolina Tar Heels.
holiday bowl
number 15 Oregon vs. North Carolina (8 p.m. ET Wednesday, December 28, FOX i FOX Sports app)
The holiday bowl has always felt like the bowl game that officially kicks off most of the bowl season. It’s often the first game with ranked Power Five conference teams, although this season North Carolina is an unranked team and has nine wins after losing to Clemson in the ACC title game. Oregon comes to San Diego with nine wins, too, and a terrible loss to rival Oregon State to end the regular season. Both teams are looking to end the season on a high note with a win in this game.
The bright spots for both of these teams are their offenses. Oregon’s offense is excellent through the air and on the ground. Quarterback Bo Nix completed 71% of his passes for 3,389 yards, with 27 touchdowns to six interceptions. He added 504 rushing yards with 14 touchdowns through his feet. Those numbers include playing the last two games of the season with a loose leg. He is now healthy and ready to roll. Oregon’s rushing attack is fantastic and has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Ducks rank first in rushing rate and have allowed the fewest sacks in the country.
Pat Narduzzi says two schools offered $5 million NIL to UNC QB Drake Maye
The transfer portal is heating up. North Carolina QB Drake Maye received $5 million NIL by two SEC programs (not currently on portal).
North Carolina’s offense ranks 20th in points per drive, but the Tar Heels are led primarily by their quarterback Drake Maye. Maye threw for 4,115 yards and was the team’s leading rusher by nearly 150 yards. The Tar Heels’ offensive line wasn’t good, and Maye had to work magic to get anything going. The top Tar Heel receiver this season was Josh Downs. He accumulated more than a thousand yards receiving, but Downs will not play Wednesday night. Maye will need to find another target to help the team score.
The defenses of these two teams also have some things in common. Neither is good. And both are without their best players. The Ducks’ defense is 102nd in rushing yards and will be without their top cornerback, linebacker and defensive end. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels’ defense ranks 112th in points per game, and they’re missing their top three secondary players. It’s easy to see this game ending with the Tar Heels covering 14.5 points.
However, I’m not entirely sure of the motivation behind this Tar Heel team. They have lost three in a row and have only scored 18 points per game. They are traveling across the country to a stadium that will be packed with Oregon fans in San Diego. The Ducks want this game badly after taking their last game against the Beavers. Bo Nix is healthy and has announced his return for 2023.
Yes, Oregon is without their offensive coordinator who is now the head coach at Arizona State, but they know how to run the ball and use the air attack against this Tar Heel defense.
I’m taking the Ducks to score over 44.5 points in this game.
COLLECT: Oregon Team Total Over 44.5 Points Scored at FOX Bet
Rose Bowl
No. 8 Utah vs. no. 11 Penn State (5 p.m. ET Monday, Jan. 2, ESPN)
I would love to play a Pac-12 team in the Rose Bowl, but I can’t. Dalton Kincaid, Utah’s most impactful player, is not playing.
Kincaid is a potential first-round pick, and despite playing through injuries this year, he led all tight ends in the country in receptions and yards. Dalton was targeted 96 times for the Utes, which was 14 more targets than the Utes’ leading receiver. Without him in the lineup, this Utes offense will struggle to move the ball against a very good Penn State defense. Penn State’s defense ranks seventh in points per drive and 30th in explosive game pace. Utah’s offense has no explosive receiving options without Kincaid.
Utah’s defense is also missing an impact player, their top cornerback Clark Phillips. But the Utes should still be ready on defense. The Nittany Lions’ offense ranks 40th in points per drive, and they face a Utes defense that ranks 29th in stopping opponents’ points.
I’m leaning toward Nittany Lions coverage since Kincaid is out. So, I really regret going against my conference and going with Penn State here.
COLLECT: Penn State (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his freshman year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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