Saia Growth Accelerates But It May Not Matter 


Go out low with big gains

LTL-sender the skirt (NASDAQ: EXIT) Revenue growth accelerated for the third consecutive quarter and to a new high, but it may not matter. Truckers have been negotiating as if a recession is already here, and according to FOMC prospects, one may be on its way. Until then, demand for truck services remains high and is driving Saia’s results along with a solid expansion plan. The company has already opened two new terminals this year and plans to accelerate new openings in the current quarter and for the year.



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“We have opened two new terminals this year, and our pace of opening will accelerate now that the winter weather is behind us,” said CEO Fritz Holzgrefe. “I anticipate that four more terminal openings will be completed by the end of the second quarter and we are still anticipating the opening of a total of 10 to 15 new locations in 2022.”

Skirt beats at the top and bottom

Saia had a great quarter in which revenues have accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to an all-time high. The company posted net income of $ 661.2 million, up 36.6% from last year. Revenue was also above the consensus estimate of Marketbeat.com, surpassing this figure by 430 basis points, due to the strength of the shipments, the size of the shipment and the distance. The company reported a 5.7% increase in payloads per day along with a 9.5% increase in tonnage per day. This is also accompanied by a 21.4% increase in revenue per cent weight and a 25.7% increase in shipping volume.

Down the report, the news is even better because prices and demand have led to significant profit leverage. The company reports an improvement of 550 basis points in the operating ratio and $ 2.90 in GAAP EPS. The EPA not only rose more than 110% from last year, but also surpassed the consensus by $ 0.26 or about 875 basis points. According to the current state of the transport industry, these results should continue to improve sequentially. However, if the FOMC causes a recession, that perspective changes. The warning to investors is that the FOMC may cause a recession, but it will not happen immediately. The first interest rate hikes, unless they are greater than our expectations, will not be enough on their own.

Analysts like What Saia’s Hauling

The activity of the analyst in Saia has been mixed this year, but take it with a grain of salt. Although there have been some price drops and even a drop or two, analysts remain very optimistic with Saia. The consensus rating is a firm purchase with a target price of $ 327. This target is slightly below the recent high, but is still rising in the 3 and 12 month comparisons. Better yet, the target is still more than 60% above the recent price action and suggests at least some rise for the stock. Institutions are also optimistic that the company owns almost 100% of the outstanding shares. They were selling and that had a negative impact on stock prices, but ended the fourth quarter. Since then, institutional activity has been very light and clean-up.

Technical Perspectives: Saia is testing support

Price action in Saia was corrected earlier this year under the influence of institutional selling, but there may be a fund. The caveat is that price action is lukewarm at this level, there don’t seem to be many interested buyers, so support may fail. If the price action moves below $ 198, a move to $ 98 is possible.
Saia’s growth is accelerating, but it may not matter



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