The Super Bowl is finally here! And when it comes to betting on the Big Game, we’ve got you covered in terms of trends.
FOX Sports Research took a deep dive into Super Bowl betting by looking at various angles and trends that have historically been profitable.
After reviewing the data, here are the top 10 overall trends that caught our eye. Hopefully, these nuggets will help you make informed bets, but more importantly, they’ll make watching the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Kansas City Chiefs a little more exciting.
So what are we waiting for? Let’s get into the trends!
Did Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts have a better Super Bowl LVII run?
A debate whether QB Patrick Mahomes or QB Jalen Hurts had a better Super Bowl career.
1. Teams that score first in the Super Bowl have won the game 68% of the time
This is an amazing number that jumped off the page. However, while the Los Angeles Rams scored first and won last year, it should be mentioned that the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers scored first and both lost. Despite these two outliers, this has been a profitable trend. From 2011 to 2019, all but one of the teams that scored first in the game went on to win. Also, 29 of the first 45 Super Bowls saw the team that scored first win.
The lone team from 2011-19 not to score first and win? The New England Patriots in 2017 (2016 season), who were down 28-3 in the third quarter but still got a W.
On the other hand, live betting has become a fun way to bet on games. This could be the way to go if you like this trend.
2. Betting on the Super Bowl winner most of the time directly results in a hedge against the spread (ATS)
Super Bowl winning teams are 47-7-2 ATS in the game, with 87% coverage. It should be noted that the Rams did not close the gap by 4.5 points against the Cincinnati Bengals last year, despite winning the game.
This may seem obvious, but in the world of gambling, any bet above 60% is stellar. But 80%? This is unheard of, so if you trust who will win the game, bet to cover them too!
3. Nick Sirianni trends
With Nick Sirianni making his coaching debut in the Super Bowl, we took a deep dive into his ATS and SU performance as a head coach. Here’s what we found:
- Sirianni is 16-17-1 ATS (48.5%) and 23-11 SU (67.6%) as a head coach in regular season games.
- Sirianni is 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 2-1 SU (66.7%) as a head coach in playoff games
- Sirianni is 13-10-1 ATS (56.5%) and 21-3 SU (87.5%) as a favorite head coach (regular season and playoffs)
- Sirianni is 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU as a head coach when the extension is elected, and a one-to-three point favorite.
- Sirianni is 0-1 ATS and 0-1 SU as a head coach against the Chiefs in his career, losing in a Week 4 matchup in the 2021 season
4. Andy Reid trends
Unlike Sirianni, coach Andy Reid is no stranger to the Super Bowl, becoming the ninth coach to make four appearances in the big game. Here’s a deep dive into how he’s performed in various betting situations throughout his career:
- Reid is 28-23-4 ATS (54.9%) and 25-30 SU (45.5%) as a head coach as a one-to-three point underdog (regular season and playoffs)
- Reid is 20-16-1 ATS (55.6%) and 21-16 SU (56.8%) as a head coach in all career playoff games (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reid is 9-8-1 ATS (52.9%) and 11-7 SU (61.1%) as the Chiefs head coach in the playoffs.
- Reid is 6-3-1 ATS (66.7%) and 3-7 SU (30%) as a head coach when a playoff underdog (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reid is 0-1-1 ATS and 0-2 SU as the Chiefs head coach when a playoff underdog.
- Reid is 2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 1-2 SU (33.3%) as a Super Bowl head coach (Chiefs and Eagles)
- Reid is 3-0 ATS and 3-0 SU as a head coach against the Eagles in his career
5. Since the 1999 season (Super Bowl 2000), there have been 12 instances of a coach coaching in a Super Bowl before facing a coach who hasn’t. In those 12 instances, the coach with Super Bowl experience was 3-8-1 ATS and 7-5 SU
Experience matters right? Not so much in the last 23 years if you consider the spread. The coach with Super Bowl experience has lost five of 12 games (41.7%) against coaches making their first big dance. More importantly, from a betting perspective, they have only covered 27.3% in that period. Super Bowl LVII will be Reid’s fourth time coaching the game and Sirianni’s first.
6. Historically, the team that rushes for the most yards in the Super Bowl wins and covers
See who gets an early lead in rushing totals when the Big Game begins, as teams that win the rushing battle in the Super Bowl are a staggering 39-14-3 ATS (73.6%) and 41-15 SU (73.2%). ). However, it should be mentioned that the Bengals outplayed the Rams last year and lost. In the regular season, the Eagles were fifth in the league in rushing at 147.6 yards per game, while the Chiefs ranked 20th at 115.9.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Eagles are averaging 208.0 rushing yards per game in the postseason, while the Chiefs’ average has dropped to 93.0.
7. The team that had the best points allowed per game rate in the regular season has been on a tear
The teams that allowed the fewest points per game during the regular season have won the last seven Super Bowl games and are also 6-1 ATS (85.7%). The last team to win the Super Bowl with a higher points per game average was the Patriots in 2015 (2014 season), who would have lost the game to the Seattle Seahawks had Malcolm Butler not intercepted the ball at the line of goal with 20. there are seconds.
This season, the Eagles allowed 20.2 PPG in the regular season, while the Chiefs allowed 21.7.
8. The NFC has the all-time lead in Super Bowls won, but the AFC has dominated the spread in recent years
The NFC holds a 29-27 (51.8%) edge over the AFC in Super Bowl wins and is also 28-26-2 ATS (51.9%). However, over the past 10 Super Bowls, the AFC has gone 7-3 ATS (70%) and 6-4 SU (60%). NFC teams covered in that span were the 2013 Seahawks, 2017 Eagles and 2020 Buccaneers.
9. Mahomes an underdog for the first time in his playoff career
Although the Chiefs were long underdogs against the Bengals in the AFC title game, the line eventually closed with Kansas City being a two-point favorite. However, the Eagles have been consistent favorites over the past few days, meaning it could be the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ entire career that he’s an underdog in the postseason. Here’s an overview of how Mahomes has performed in various situations throughout his career, both ATS and SU:
- Mahomes’ biggest underdog spread was 4.5 points on the road in a Week 2 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018; The Chiefs won 42-37
- Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS (87.5%) and 6-3 SU (66.7%) as a career underdog starter, with the Over in six of those games.
- Mahomes has only been an underdog at home just once, being a 2.5-point underdog against the Bills in Week 6 this season; Kansas City didn’t cover and lost outright (Low blow)
- Mahomes is 25-24 ATS (51.0%) and 40-9 SU (81.6%) as a home starter, with the Under in 26 of those games (regular season and playoffs).
- Mahomes is 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 9-2 SU (81.8%) as a starter at home in the playoffs, with the Over hitting in six of those games.
10. 24 teams have won both the coin toss and the all-time Super Bowl game. In the last eight Super Bowls, the team that won the toss lost the game
Only 43% of teams all-time have won the Super Bowl after winning the coin toss. Another thing to keep in mind if you want to launch a live bet.
The winner of the coin toss has been unlucky for eight years to lose the game. Will the streak increase to nine this year?
If you’re ready to make some Super Bowl bets after reading the top trends, go to Bet FOX now!
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