Super Bowl 2023 odds: 3 reasons to bet on the Chiefs against the Eagles

The Kansas City Chiefs are returning to the Super Bowl, making their third trip in the last four seasons. But they have their work cut out for them if they plan to get past the Eagles in the Big Game.

And speaking of having your work cut out for them, remember that, both of you Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were hit in the NFC Championship Game. So one of the main questions on everyone’s mind is whether the Chiefs are healthy enough to win this game. We’ll get to that, but first, let’s get to the most important part.

How should you bet on this powerful matchup?

I’ve got you covered on both questions, with my three reasons to bet on the Chiefs (odds via Bet FOX).

The best QB

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. So you always have a chance to win every game when he is on the pitch. Even with an ankle, one that I suspect will have improved in the two weeks between the Chiefs’ AFC Championship win and the Super Bowl, he was wonderful against the Bengals. The Chiefs offense lost three receivers against the Bengals. They stuck with Marcus Kemp as the second receiver. Kemp is primarily a special teams player who has twice as many career tackles as sacks in his five-year career, but the offense continued to sing with him in the lineup.

It’s fair to say the Eagles haven’t had a tough schedule this season. However, you can only play the teams according to your schedule, and the Eagles deserve credit for destroying several of their opponents.

However, Philly hasn’t faced an offense or quarterback like the Chiefs all season.

According to the final QBR rankings, the best QB the Eagles defense has faced is Jared Goff, and that was in Week 1 of the season. Other notable quarterbacks the Eagles have defended were Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers. This is. It’s not a long list.

The Chiefs offense, if healthy, will put points on the Eagles defense. They haven’t seen anyone close to this team all season. It’s worth noting that Mahomes has faced four teams ranked in the top 10 in pass defense this season. He is 4-0, averaging 287 yards with 10 touchdowns.

He’ll be ready for the Eagles’ top-tier pass defense.

Steve Spagnuolo

The Chiefs defensive coordinator is often the punching bag of the Kansas City fan base, but he has multiple Super Bowl rings because of how his units play during the playoffs and the Big Game. Whether it’s the 2007 Giants defense shutting out the New England Patriots 18-0 or the 2019 Chiefs defense playing well and ending their season with a Super Bowl, their defense always seems to come up big in these moments This season follows a similar path.

At one point in the fourth quarter Sunday, the Chiefs were playing FIVE rookies on defense, including four in the secondary. Four rookies played at least 25% of the snaps in the secondary this season, which was by far the most snaps any defense has seen by players this young. All the early reps have paid off as the pass defense has been much better in the back half of the season. Spags has scouted the rotation of young players to see the field, including a now-healthy first-round pick Trent McDuffie. With McDuffie on the field, the Chiefs defense hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer in 13 games. Since Week 10, the Chiefs’ pass defense ranks 10th in DVOA. Since week 16, it has been in sixth place. It keeps getting better.

One thing Spags is known for is pressure, and I expect a heavy dose against the Eagles. Jalen Hurts has the fifth-lowest expected completion percentage when fired this season and the sixth-lowest completion percentage when an extra defender is pressing. These numbers are sure to pique the interest of a happy coordinator at Spags. Kansas City needs to find a way to make Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts uncomfortable, and this is how it’s being done.

Chris Jones

If the Chiefs win this game, Chris Jones will be in the discussion for game MVP.

Since Week 13, Chris Jones has more career stops than all but one Chiefs defender. Chris Jones has 63 pressures this season, first for defensive tackles in the NFL. He has doubled his pressure rating since Week 13, and is third in the league in fourth-quarter pressures and forced turnovers. He is a force.

But Chris Jones won’t have it as easy in the Super Bowl as he did when the Chiefs played the Bengals.

The Eagles have the best offensive line in football, but there are a few players I could target. Jones will move all over the line to find the best situation for him to rush. Against Cincinnati, he was able to generate pressure on the right tackle and both guards. Right tackle is against the Eagles. He doesn’t work with Lane Johnson. However, Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata has allowed six sacks and 39 pressures, both highs for the Eagles this season.

Jones doesn’t often line up at left tackle because that’s where Frank Clark lines up. But maybe there is some line change. If he wasn’t left tackle, I could see Jones working over right guard Isaac Seumalo. He’s allowed just 22 pressures this season, but he’s heavier than his lefty counterpart in Dickerson.

It won’t be easy for Jones, but if Jones can win some of those matchups, the Chiefs will win.

COLLECT: Heads (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by less than 1.5 points (or win outright)

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