Super Bowl odds on move after NFL trade deadline, 49ers huge liability


For Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Gambling Writer

The NFL trade deadline made Tuesday a pretty active day for the league. A few notable trades could greatly improve the teams’ prospects, and from a betting standpoint, the deals moved the Super Bowl odds board.

As always, all sportsbooks react differently. In fact, the two most notable deadline moves, from the Miami Dolphins and the Minnesota Vikings, made an oddsmaker stand completely.

After the trade deadline, PointsBet USA and FOX Bet provided information and insights on Super Bowl odds. Let’s dive into the impact.

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In one of the biggest deals on Tuesday, the Dolphins added standout outside linebacker Bradley Chubb in a trade with the Denver Broncos. Miami is 5-3, and with QB Tua Tagovailoa healthy again, the Dolphins looked to shore up their defense.

However, Points USA kept Miami at +2800 in their Super Bowl odds market. When championship odds were first released in February, the Dolphins were +4000.

On the other hand, FOX Bet made a great adjustment regarding the Miami Super Bowl odds. Dylan Brossman, senior director of business operations at FOX Bet, confirmed that the Dolphins improved from +3000 to win the Super Bowl before the trade to +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total) afterwards.

New kings of the NFC North?

In an interesting deal, the Detroit Lions sent tight end TJ Hockenson to the NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings. The move bolsters a Vikings team that is 6-1 and has been on the move in Super Bowl odds.

Minnesota opened at +2500 and is now the co-fifth choice at +1400 at PointsBet, with Baltimore and Dallas. On the FOX Bet side, the Vikings were shortened slightly from +1500 to +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total) to win it all.

While the Vikings odds didn’t change the Hockenson deal, Minnesota and Miami are getting punters’ attention.

“We haven’t moved the prices of the Fins or the Vikes yet,” PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said Tuesday night. “But if the action continues to rise at this steady rate, we may have to change them a bit.”

Christian McCaffrey does a little bit of everything for the 49ers

Christian McCaffrey does a little bit of everything for the 49ers

Christian McCaffrey had 183 total yards and three touchdowns in San Francisco’s win over the Rams.

Nothing finer

The San Francisco 49ers made the biggest trade impact, but they did it well before Tuesday’s deadline. On October 20, the Niners added running back Christian McCaffrey in a massive deal with the Carolina Panthers.

There was an initial influence of the future Super Bowl odds of this deal, which expanded in the wake of McCaffrey’s big performance in Week 8. McCaffrey had a touchdown rushing, receiving and passing in the victory of San Francisco by 31-14 over the Los Angeles Rams.

Bettors are quite intrigued with San Francisco, even though the roster is just 4-4.

“The Niners are a different story,” Korn said, noting that PointsBet was forced to short San Francisco’s odds, unlike the Dolphins and Vikings. “Since the CMC change, the Niners have gone from +1700 to +1200 to win the Super Bowl and from +750 to +650 to win the NFC. The action in San Francisco has picked up a ton over the last week about.

“The 49ers are now in the top 10 in betting odds to win the Super Bowl. They were outside the top 15 before the trade. The 49ers have also passed the Bills in terms of liability to win the Super Bowl.”

Buffalo had been PointsBet’s biggest liability among teams viewed as legitimate playoff/Super Bowl contenders this season. San Francisco has now taken up that mantle.

“The 49ers are definitely a team we worry about,” Korn said.

San Francisco is the fourth choice in PointsBet’s Super Bowl odds market, trailing only the Bills (+240), Philadelphia Eagles (+500) and Kansas City Chiefs (+600).

At FOX Bet, Brossman said the 49ers were +1500 before the McCaffrey deal. Earlier Tuesday, San Fran was +1300, then moved to +1200 Tuesday night ($10 bet to win $130 total).

That makes the Niners the fourth choice at FOX Bet, again behind the Bills (+260), Eagles (+500) and Chiefs (+650).

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

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