Political analysts react to the news that the Supreme Court seems willing to overturn Roe v. Wade, saying this November’s midterm elections are being shaken by development.
Republicans were widely expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the election, and the GOP had also had a good chance of regaining the U.S. Senate.
But expectations are now that Democrats could do better than expected, as their base seems to be encouraged if the Supreme Court overturns the historic 1973 decision that legalized abortion nationwide. .
“The imminent threat to Roe v. Wade is likely to galvanize young voters and suburban women in particular,” Melissa K. Miller, a political science professor at Bowling Green State University in Ohio, said in an email. electronic.
“In reduced races, an increase in their participation and support for Democrats could make all the difference.”
The PredictIt betting market on Tuesday offers an 85% chance of Republicans recovering in the House, below 91% on Saturday, along with a 75% chance of taking control of the Senate, below 79 % of saturday.
Republicans “still have the edge in November thanks to district redistribution and enthusiasm (so far) for the Biden administration among independents and even some Democrats,” Miller said.
In a similar vein, Isaac Boltansky of BTIG said Roe’s news is a “modest positive for Democrats” in the medium term, but it is still likely that House control will pass this fall in the GOP. He is the director of policy research at BTIG.
I’ll see: The leaked draft decision shows that the Supreme Court intends to overturn Roe v. Wade, informs Politico
Miller stressed that the Supreme Court has not yet ruled on its decision, but if it does, it is likely that several states will immediately ban abortion within its borders.
“This means that the tangible effects of the Supreme Court decision are likely to be felt immediately in a whole host of states. Things will get real, very quickly,” he said. It will be important to keep track of what happens next in “closed races for the House and Senate in terms of fundraising, messaging and organization.”
Democrats have issued statements quickly following the news, which arrived Monday afternoon.
“If the Court overturns Roe, it will be up to our nation’s elected officials at all levels of government to protect women’s right to choose,” said President Joe Biden.
“And it will be up to voters to elect pro-election officials this November. At the federal level, we will need more pro-election senators and a pro-election majority in the House to pass legislation codifying Roe, which I will work to pass. and sign it “.
Some Democratic lawmakers on Monday night called for the codification of the right to abortion into federal law, though those pressures have been unsuccessful, with an effort in February to get 48 votes in the Senate.
“Congress must pass legislation codifying Roe v. Wade as the law of the land in this country NOW,” tsaid Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent who usually votes with Democrats. “And if there are not 60 votes in the Senate to do so, and there are not, we must end the obstruction to approve it with 50 votes.
Related: Schumer says he will vote to codify the right to abortion
Amid Republican reactions, Mehmet Oz, the heart surgeon and former television presenter who ran in the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primaries, offered support to the Conservative majority in the Supreme Court.
“The court is right. Roe made the wrong decision, “Oz said in a statement.” Abortion laws should be left to the American people and their elected representatives. I look forward to supporting pro-life legislation that saves innocent lives in the United States Senate. “
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized how the court’s draft opinion was made public.
“Someone, probably someone in court himself, leaked a confidential internal draft to the press almost certainly in an effort to provoke an inappropriate pressure campaign to influence an outcome,” the Kentucky Republican said in a speech. “The radical left immediately united around toxic acrobatics.”
McConnell also said, “Liberals want to rip off Lady Justice’s bandage. They want to nullify impartiality with intimidation.”
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