On January 9, the Georgia Bulldogs will face the TCU Horned Frogs in the ninth edition of the College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship Game.
Georgia opened as a favorite with 13.5 points Bet FOXwith the opening Over/Under (total) at 61.5.
According to FOX Sports Research, this is the most coverage for a title game since the BCS instituted one in 1998. The previous high came when Miami was a 12-point favorite over Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game in 2002
Kirby Smart & Co. will make his third appearance in the game, losing Alabama the 2017 season and then defeating the Tide in last year’s national title. TCU, on the other hand, will be making its first appearance in the big dance under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes.
To dig even deeper into the big game, FOX Sports Research decided to take a look at historical championship game trends to give you a betting edge on Monday. Below are the trends from two different time lenses: the start of the BCS era (since 1998) followed by the start of the CFP era (since 2014).
Let’s dive in!
Here’s how teams have fared against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU), along with several notes on the Over/Under.
Since the beginning of the BCS (1998):
- The favorites are 12-12 ATS and 15-9 SU in the championship game
- Double-digit underdogs are 2-0 ATS and SU in national championship; Oklahoma (+11.5) defeated Florida State in the 2000 season and Ohio State (+12) defeated Miami in the 2002 season
- The seven-plus point favorites in the title game are 3-5 ATS and 4-4 SU
- SEC teams are 14-6 ATS and 14-6 SU in the championship game
- Big 12 teams are 2-5 ATS and 2-5 SU in the title game
- The No. 1 team in the AP poll is 11-10 ATS and SU in the title game
- The No. 3 team in the AP poll is 3-5 ATS and 2-6 SU in the championship game
- The Over has hit in 13 of 24 National Championship games (a push)
- In games where the Over/Under was over 60, the Under hit in four of seven games (one push)
- Georgia is looking to become the second consecutive national champion in the BCS era, Alabama did it in 2011 and 2012.
- Alabama did it in 2011 and 2012
Since the start of the PPC (2014):
- The favorites are 3-5 ATS and 5-3 SU in the championship game
- The six-plus point favorites are 1-3 ATS and 2-2 SU in the title game
- SEC teams are 4-5 ATS and 5-4 SU in the championship game
- The Big 12 has never had a team in the title game
- The No. 1 team in the AP poll is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 SU in the championship game
- The No. 3 team in the AP poll is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 SU in the title game
- The Over has hit in five of eight National Championship games (one push)
- In games where the Over/Under was over 60, it was split 1-1, along with a combined three-game sweep
- Georgia is 2-0 ATS and 1-1 SU in the championship game
- The Bulldogs are looking to become the first back-to-back national champions in the CFP era
So are you ready to place some bets on the CFP title game? Head over to Bet FOX now for all your bets!
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