The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions are behind more than a third of the 40-year high inflation of 8.6%, according to the analysis of a major forecaster.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says that after decomposing the figures, the Russian invasion accounted for 3.5% year-on-year growth, mainly through the direct rise in commodity prices. But he added in a company podcast that higher diesel prices are pushing food prices higher and he is also bleeding on things like airline tickets.
The COVID-19 pandemic, he said, accounted for 2% year-on-year growth, mainly across supply chains.
“Most of the supply chain restriction component in the CPI is new and used vehicles, but it also includes bedding, furniture, children’s clothing, things that are really affected by supply chains.” added Ryan Sweet, senior director of Moody’s Analytics.
According to Moody’s estimates, the lack of affordable housing is also responsible for 0.6% of year-on-year price growth.
He said the US bailout plan, the stimulus plan that President Biden signed into law, had a negligible impact.
In all, Zandi says the typical American household pays $ 460 more a month to buy the same goods and services they would have at the same time last year.
Cris DeRitis, chief economist, said inflation readings may not have peaked. “But as we spend the summer, past the summer driving season, I think then you could see a little bit of that moderation,” he said. “It’s just a matter of time.”
US SPX shares,
fell for the second day Monday. 2-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD02Y,
it continued to increase as the curve approached investment.