FOX sports betting analyst
Putting your hard-earned money down on college football championship game odds just got a tougher proposition, thanks to the final game.
You have Georgia, the defending national champion, which is not a huge surprise. And you have TCU, which is quite a surprise. Before the season, you could have gotten the Horned Frogs at odds of 200-1 at FOX Bet to win it all.
As such, even though the Frogs have come this far, they are almost two underdogs for the Bulldogs.
So how do keen punters approach Monday night’s title tilt? Well, at least one of them is looking for the total point of 62.5.
“Despite the decent odds he’ll be overpriced due to high-scoring results in the two national semifinals, I’ll be betting the Over in the championship game,” said Andy Molitor, a major college football bettor and director of contents of Betsperts.com.
Against the sharp grain
From week to week during the football season (NFL or college), sharp bettors are often known to play the Under in totals. Public/recreational bettors, who want nothing more than to see a lot of points, almost always bet the Over. Smart punters pick what is considered the best value on the Under.
But after two high-flying semifinal games in which TCU held off Michigan 51-45 and Georgia rolled past Ohio State in a 42-41 victory, Molitor is taking a different perspective. And that’s even with TCU running back Kendre Miller (knee) questionable midweek for the big game.
“After picking up some injuries in the semifinal against Ohio State and suddenly looking a little more human than they have the last two seasons, I [still] I think TCU’s offense can continue its success on Monday night. Although I’m not sure it will be enough to lift the trophy,” Molitor said. “Georgia giving up 71 points in their last two games is probably a little more than expected and can’t be counted on to continue at least so high of a rate. But maybe it’s shown that some of the injuries on defense and special teams are starting to catch up a little bit.”
In fact, Georgia, with a reputation for stingy defense, gave up some points in their last two outings. In the SEC championship against LSU, the Bulldogs were outshot 50-30, but this was the first time all season that Georgia allowed more than 22 points.
Then in the CFP semifinals, the Bulldogs fell behind by two touchdowns twice as Ohio State went up and down the field, putting up five TDs and two field goals.
Crime TCU No Fluke
After seeing the Bulldogs’ last season’s lapses on defense and the Horned Frogs’ impressive season on offense, Molitor feels comfortable saying TCU can fulfill its role in helping charge more than 62, 5. He was particularly impressed by what QB Max Duggan & Co. did. against Michigan.
“Obviously some [TCU’s] The scoring came from the defense,” Molitor said, noting the Horned Frogs returned two interceptions for touchdowns. “But to see a team have the success on the ground that it did against a strong Michigan defense very excited that we can see more. the same on another neutral field, indoors against UGA.”
And while TCU is on a Cinderella run, the offense is by no means a fairy tale.
“While some of this magical season has looked sluggish, nothing about their offense is,” Molitor said. “Duggan is a true dual threat, and there doesn’t seem to be any blueprint on how to slow down the Horned Frogs right now, as their offense is truly a team effort. While Kendre Miller and Quentin Johnston are clearly their better defense. and receiver, they’re deep at both positions and don’t allow a team to take a player away to beat them.”
Georgia O on the Go
Of course, TCU can’t charge Over tickets for itself unless something really crazy happens. And with Molitor less confident that TCU will pull off the huge upset, the Bulldogs will have to carry their weight on the scoreboard.
Molitor doesn’t see that being a problem for QB Stetson Bennett and the Georgia offense.
“Most of the argument is based on TCU’s score, ignoring the other half of the equation that is needed to charge an Over,” Molitor said. “But I just think getting 30-35 points should be the absolute floor for the best team with the very experienced quarterback. And that only increases if the Bulldogs are in a state of play that doesn’t allow them to take their foot off the gas.” .
Sharps in the spread?
Will sharp bettors get involved on both sides of this huge spread? Generally speaking, professionals would not want to put 13 points. So TCU would probably be more attractive if the Horned Frogs are fully healthy. WynnBet Junior Trader Dom DeBonis Charted How He Thinks Spread Betting Will Work For The Championship Clash
“Under normal circumstances, the double-digit underdog with the propensity to play well late in games would be the sharp side. But that will depend on the health of Horned Frogs running back Kendre Miller,” DeBonis said. “I expect money to come in for or against TCU, depending on when their status becomes official. So far, a spread of 13 has proven to be the sweet spot between the two sides. So the closing number could very well be determined by the injury report”.
This is always an important point to emphasize. For those of you thinking about betting on the spread, or really any market tied to Miller’s status, keep an eye out for injury news. As for me? I’m more inclined to follow Molitor’s guts on this total.
Regardless, here’s hoping it’s another shootout on par with the two semifinals and that TCU can keep it very interesting all night.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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