There is a saying in gambling that “the house always wins”, meaning that in most cases casinos and betting operators are more likely to win than bettors.
This philosophy also applies to sports betting where sports betting is usually profitable at events ranging from the Super Bowl to March Madness and the MLB playoffs. An important sport-related event, however, is different. It’s the only event where bettors can be able to beat sports betting: the NFL Draft.
As reported by ESPN, players have been outperforming sports betting in the draft for years, but continue to offer the service to meet customer demand.
More than $ 20 million was wagered on last year’s draft, most likely to bet this year. Bettors can bet on who will be selected No. 1 overall, which player will be the first wide receiver, and which players will be selected in the top 10: There are hundreds of bets available like these on U.S. legal sports betting like DraftKings DKNG . ,
and the Caesars CZR,
But why is the draft unique? This is mainly because, in most cases, sports betting has more information than bettors. They have huge databases on every player on each team, team trends and coaches and referees trends, among other things. But draft is not a live sports game, you are betting on people making decisions in a draft room.
“For example, in the Super Bowl, we have so much data, so much information, that we’re so sure the Rams should be a 4.5-point favorite over the Bengals,” said Jay Croucher, head of betting trading. sports pointsBet. during an interview Wednesday on NBC. But he added, on the NFL Draft: “This kind of market, I really can’t tell you with much confidence who should go to number one or who will go to number one.”
For once, sports betting and betting are on an equal footing. Sports betting and betting should not predict complex games with several dozen people involved, they should simply learn the preferences of a general manager, the person who selects a team’s draft. And one way to do that is through information.
Here’s an example of how bettors can make good bets on the NFL Draft. In the days leading up to last year’s draft, Ian Rapoport, an NFL Network expert, reported that “most of the people“They believe the Atlanta Falcons will select Kyle Pitts in the No. 4 tight end. Rapoport is one of the connected analysts when it comes to NFL news and has millions of followers on Twitter, so when he tweets information like thisthe betting markets are moving.
Nine days before the draft, the Falcons were likely to pick a tight end of +160, but the morning of the draft was -250, which represented a massive implied probability change from 38% to 71.4% in a matter of days. , according to William Hill’s probabilities. If you could make that bet fast enough, you could take advantage when the Falcons picked Kyle Pitts a little over a week later. You can find a more detailed explanation of how betting odds work here.
You didn’t need a giant database or tracking data to be able to bet on Kyle Pitts to be selected there, just follow Rapoport on Twitter.
Coucher admitted that sports betting is basically based on the same information as public bettors, indicating that the draft is a big probabilistic guess.
“Supposed text messages from someone who could be a cousin of someone who could work at the Jags (the team that selected No. 1 in 2022), these are the things that drive the market … their simulated drafts, your sources, your stuff you post on Twitter “, TWTR,
Coucher kept saying.
Last year was the third time Americans could legally bet on the NFL Draft: in 2018, the Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), allowing individual states to legislate sports betting, and bookmakers easily admit they do. You don’t always make money by betting on the NFL Draft.
“From a gambler’s point of view, preventing the NFL Draft is one of the hardest things we do,” Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of racing and sports betting operations, wrote to MarketWatch in an email. “In this particular case, it would move the needle towards the gambler. It has been difficult for us to make money with the draft.”
See also: What time does the NFL Draft begin? Here’s what you need to know about watching the 2022 NFL Draft
As mentioned earlier, quick reactions to breaking news from people who often talk to people who help lead NFL teams can spread quickly, but bettors who can take advantage of this information can improve their bets. sports.
In sports competitions, chance and perhaps more accurately chance can have a big impact. Whether it’s a bad night of shooting for the best shooter in an NBA game, or a weird bounce of a spheroid-shaped football during a big scrum, chance is in full swing. everywhere. While there are some aspects of randomness in the NFL Draft, betting on the latest news you’ve seen on Twitter before sports betting has time to change its betting lines may be your best chance of winning. , said Croucher.
“That’s the nature of the draft. These markets are pretty vulnerable and you can beat them.”