Patrick Everson
FOX sports betting analyst
Thursday’s World Cup results probably had some bookies reaching for the Excedrin. First, Belgium crashed out, failing to get out of Group F after a 0-0 draw against Croatia. Then in Group E came even greater disappointment as Germany failed to progress, despite a 4-2 win over Costa Rica to close out group play.
Several sportsbooks wanted to see Belgium and Germany stay alive in the World Cup betting market, but they failed to do so.
According to FOX Sports Research, Germany will miss the knockout stages of back-to-back World Cups for the first time in national team history.
Four ratings are not enough
Germany put themselves in a big hole by going down 2-1 against Japan in their opening game. From there, it was destined to be an uphill battle. Against Spain, the German side settled for a 1-1 draw, leaving them with just one point heading into the final group game against Costa Rica.
Germany needed to win and probably scored a ton of goals. Thomas Müller & Co. secured a 4-2 win to secure three points and finish the group stage with four points. But Spain also had four points and a huge advantage on goal difference – Germany’s goal difference was just one, while Spain’s was a whopping six, thanks to an opening 7-0 over Costa Rica .
So Spain move on and Germany, who before the tournament were one of the favorites at FOX Bet with odds to win the World Cup at +1000, head home.
“Germany were a big winner in our future so it’s hard to see them,” BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee said. “It’s quite shocking that Germany are out at the moment. Crazy enough that they haven’t made it past the group stage since they won the tournament in 2014.”
faded germany
Adam Pullen, assistant director of merchandising at Caesars Sports, echoed Magee’s sentiments about Germany.
“We were actually in a good position with Germany in the outright tournament and group winners markets for the World Cup,” Pullen said. “They seem to have had a tough time on the international stage lately. We’ve only lost to a few teams for the tournament, but they weren’t one of them.”
That said, Pullen noted that bettors had a modest win over Caesars’ trading team in one market: betting against Germany to advance.
“We were a little underdog in the market to qualify from the group stage. Germany were around 4.5-1. [+450] to not qualify, so there were some juicy odds,” Pullen said.
RELATED: What went wrong in Germany
Not too surprising
Rob Miech, a sports betting columnist and big soccer bettor, wasn’t too surprised to see Germany not make it to the knockout stages.
“Germany have an aging Müller. They sorely miss a Michael Ballack who kept them together and on their toes in days of yore. Much of the rest of the world is catching up or has caught up with the powers,” Miech said.
The Germans’ early exit certainly sends a wake-up call to the remaining World Cup favourites.
“It will alert the French, in particular, to be aware and not take anyone lightly,” Miech said, referring to the defending World Cup champions.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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